Multi-directional gated recurrent unit and convolutional neural network for load and energy forecasting: A novel hybridization

Energy operations and schedules are significantly impacted by load and energy forecasting systems. An effective system is a requirement for a sustainable and equitable environment. Additionally, a trustworthy forecasting management system enhances the resilience of power systems by cutting power and load-forecast flaws. However, due to the numerous inherent nonlinear properties of huge and diverse data, the classical statistical methodology cannot appropriately learn this non-linearity in data. Energy systems can appropriately evaluate data and regulate energy consumption because of advanced techniques. In comparison to machine learning, deep learning techniques have lately been used to predict energy consumption as well as to learn long-term dependencies. In this work, a fusion of novel multi-directional gated recurrent unit (MD-GRU) with convolutional neural network (CNN) using global average pooling (GAP) as hybridization is being proposed for load and energy forecasting. The spatial and temporal aspects, along with the high dimensionality of the data, are addressed by employing the capabilities of MD-GRU and CNN integration. The obtained results are compared to baseline algorithms including CNN, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi-GRU). The experimental findings indicate that the proposed approach surpasses conventional approaches in terms of accuracy, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RSME).</p> </abstract&gt

A Temporal Neural Network Model for Probabilistic Multi-Period Forecasting of Distributed Energy Resources

Probabilistic forecasts of electrical loads and photovoltaic generation provide a family of methods able to incorporate uncertainty estimations in predictions. This paper aims to extend the literature on these methods by proposing a novel deep-learning model based on a mixture of convolutional neural networks, transformer models and dynamic Bayesian networks. Further, the paper also illustrates how to utilize Stochastic Variational Inference for training output distributions that allow time series sampling, a possibility not given for most state-of-the-art methods which do not use distributions. On top of this, the model also proposes an encoder-decoder topology that uses matrix transposes in order to both train on the sequential and the feature dimension. The performance of the work is illustrated on both load and generation time series obtained from a site representative of distributed energy resources in Norway and compared to state-of-the-art methods such as long-short-term memory. With a single-minute prediction resolution and a single-second computation time for an update with a batch size of 100 and a horizon of 24 hours, the model promises performance capable of real-time application. In summary, this paper provides a novel model that allows generating future scenarios for time series of distributed energy resources in real-time, which can be used to generate profiles for control problems under uncertainty. INDEX TERMS deep learning, generation forecasting, load forecasting, neural networks, probabilistic methods, renewable powerpublishedVersio

Online Bearing Remaining Useful Life Prediction Based on a Novel Degradation Indicator and Convolutional Neural Networks

In industrial applications, nearly half the failures of motors are caused by the degradation of rolling element bearings (REBs). Therefore, accurately estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) for REBs are of crucial importance to ensure the reliability and safety of mechanical systems. To tackle this challenge, model-based approaches are often limited by the complexity of mathematical modeling. Conventional data-driven approaches, on the other hand, require massive efforts to extract the degradation features and construct health index. In this paper, a novel online data-driven framework is proposed to exploit the adoption of deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) in predicting the RUL of bearings. More concretely, the raw vibrations of training bearings are first processed using the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) and a novel nonlinear degradation indicator is constructed as the label for learning. The CNN is then employed to identify the hidden pattern between the extracted degradation indicator and the vibration of training bearings, which makes it possible to estimate the degradation of the test bearings automatically. Finally, testing bearings' RULs are predicted by using a $\epsilon$-support vector regression model. The superior performance of the proposed RUL estimation framework, compared with the state-of-the-art approaches, is demonstrated through the experimental results. The generality of the proposed CNN model is also validated by transferring to bearings undergoing different operating conditions

A new approach to seasonal energy consumption forecasting using temporal convolutional networks

There has been a significant increase in the attention paid to resource management in smart grids, and several energy forecasting models have been published in the literature. It is well known that energy forecasting plays a crucial role in several applications in smart grids, including demand-side management, optimum dispatch, and load shedding. A significant challenge in smart grid models is managing forecasts efficiently while ensuring the slightest feasible prediction error. A type of artificial neural networks such as recurrent neural networks, are frequently used to forecast time series data. However, due to certain limitations like vanishing gradients and lack of memory retention of recurrent neural networks, sequential data should be modeled using convolutional networks. The reason is that they have strong capabilities to solve complex problems better than recurrent neural networks. In this research, a temporal convolutional network is proposed to handle seasonal short-term energy forecasting. The proposed temporal convolutional network computes outputs in parallel, reducing the computation time compared to the recurrent neural networks. Further performance comparison with the traditional long short-term memory in terms of MAD and sMAPE has proved that the proposed model has outperformed the recurrent neural network