Predicting the Outcomes of Important Events based on Social Media and Social Network Analysis

Twitter is a famous social network website that lets users post their opinions about current affairs, share their social events, and interact with others. It has now become one of the largest sources of news, with over 200 million active users monthly. It is possible to predict the outcomes of events based on social networks using machine learning and big data analytics. Massive data available from social networks can be utilized to improve prediction efficacy and accuracy. It is a challenging problem to achieve high accuracy in predicting the outcomes of political events using Twitter data. The focus of this thesis is to investigate novel approaches to predicting the outcomes of political events from social media and social networks. The first proposed method is to predict election results based on Twitter data analysis. The method extracts and analyses sentimental information from microblogs to predict the popularity of candidates. Experimental results have shown its advantages over the existing method for predicting outcomes of politic events. The second proposed method is to predict election results based on Twitter data analysis that analyses sentimental information using term weighting and selection to predict the popularity of candidates. Scaling factors are used for different types of terms, which help to select informative terms more effectively and achieve better prediction results than the previous method. The third method proposed in this thesis represents the social network by using network connectivity constructed based on retweet data and social media contents as well, leading to a new approach to predicting the outcome of political events. Two approaches, whole-network and sub-network, have been developed and compared. Experimental results show that the sub-network approach, which constructs sub-networks based on different topics, outperformed the whole-network approach

Beautiful and damned. Combined effect of content quality and social ties on user engagement

User participation in online communities is driven by the intertwinement of the social network structure with the crowd-generated content that flows along its links. These aspects are rarely explored jointly and at scale. By looking at how users generate and access pictures of varying beauty on Flickr, we investigate how the production of quality impacts the dynamics of online social systems. We develop a deep learning computer vision model to score images according to their aesthetic value and we validate its output through crowdsourcing. By applying it to over 15B Flickr photos, we study for the first time how image beauty is distributed over a large-scale social system. Beautiful images are evenly distributed in the network, although only a small core of people get social recognition for them. To study the impact of exposure to quality on user engagement, we set up matching experiments aimed at detecting causality from observational data. Exposure to beauty is double-edged: following people who produce high-quality content increases one's probability of uploading better photos; however, an excessive imbalance between the quality generated by a user and the user's neighbors leads to a decline in engagement. Our analysis has practical implications for improving link recommender systems.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures, final version published in IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering (Volume: PP, Issue: 99

A Relational Hyperlink Analysis of an Online Social Movement

In this paper we propose relational hyperlink analysis (RHA) as a distinct approach for empirical social science research into hyperlink networks on the World Wide Web. We demonstrate this approach, which employs the ideas and techniques of social network analysis (in particular, exponential random graph modeling), in a study of the hyperlinking behaviors of Australian asylum advocacy groups. We show that compared with the commonly-used hyperlink counts regression approach, relational hyperlink analysis can lead to fundamentally different conclusions about the social processes underpinning hyperlinking behavior. In particular, in trying to understand why social ties are formed, counts regressions may over-estimate the role of actor attributes in the formation of hyperlinks when endogenous, purely structural network effects are not taken into account. Our analysis involves an innovative joint use of two software programs: VOSON, for the automated retrieval and processing of considerable quantities of hyperlink data, and LPNet, for the statistical modeling of social network data. Together, VOSON and LPNet enable new and unique research into social networks in the online world, and our paper highlights the importance of complementary research tools for social science research into the web

Ranking Spaces for Predicting Human Movement in an Urban Environment

A city can be topologically represented as a connectivity graph, consisting of nodes representing individual spaces and links if the corresponding spaces are intersected. It turns out in the space syntax literature that some defined topological metrics can capture human movement rates in individual spaces. In other words, the topological metrics are significantly correlated to human movement rates, and individual spaces can be ranked by the metrics for predicting human movement. However, this correlation has never been well justified. In this paper, we study the same issue by applying the weighted PageRank algorithm to the connectivity graph or space-space topology for ranking the individual spaces, and find surprisingly that (1) the PageRank scores are better correlated to human movement rates than the space syntax metrics, and (2) the underlying space-space topology demonstrates small world and scale free properties. The findings provide a novel justification as to why space syntax, or topological analysis in general, can be used to predict human movement. We further conjecture that this kind of analysis is no more than predicting a drunkard's walking on a small world and scale free network. Keywords: Space syntax, topological analysis of networks, small world, scale free, human movement, and PageRankComment: 11 pages, 5 figures, and 2 tables, English corrections from version 1 to version 2, major changes in the section of introduction from version 2 to