Impacts of Reduced Water Availability on Lower Murray Irrigation, Australia

This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 10, 20, 40 Celcius warming, and predict 13%, 38% and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two-stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long-run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily fallowing some areas, and permanently reducing irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such reduction are likely to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are estimated, adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated, investments in efficient irrigation, and a shift away from perennial to annual crops as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some years are very low.water availability, irrigation, Murray Darling Basin, climate change

Mathematical optimisation of drainage and economic land use for target water and salt yields

Land managers in upper catchments are being asked to make expensive changes in land use, such as by planting trees, to attain environmental service targets, including reduced salt loads in rivers, to meet needs of downstream towns, farms and natural habitats. End-of-valley targets for salt loads have sometimes been set without a quantitative model of cause and effect regarding impacts on water yields, economic efficiency or distribution of costs and benefits among stakeholders. This paper presents a method for calculating a ‘menu’ of technically feasible options for changes from current to future mean water yields and salt loads from upstream catchments having local groundwater flow systems, and the land-use changes to attain each of these options at minimum cost. It sets the economic stage for upstream landholders to negotiate with downstream parties future water-yield and salt-load targets, on the basis of what it will cost to supply these ecosystem services.discounting, landuse, NPV, opportunity-cost, salinity, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Water sharing for the environment and agriculture in the Broken catchment

The Commonwealth of Australia Water Act 2007 changed the priority for water use in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) to first ensure environmentally sustainable levels of extraction and then to maximise net economic returns to the community from water use. The Murray- Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is expected to deliver a draft Basin Plan in 2011 providing a framework for future water planning. The Plan will include Sustainable Diversion Limits (SDLs) which define water diversions for consumption while maintaining environmental assets and ecosystem functions. The 2009 MDBA Concept Statement acknowledged that in some areas less information is available to determine the SDLs. The 2010 MDBA Guide to the Basin Plan proposed SDLs reducing the current long-term average surface water diversions to between 25 and 34% for the Goulburn-Broken region. Representative farm-level models of irrigated dairy, horticulture and viticulture, and dryland broadacre, industries were developed to determine the likely impacts on farm income and farm enterprise mix if the price and quantity of irrigation water changes. Water for ecological benefits and ecosystem functioning was determined for a range of river health levels using a bottom-up approach identifying flow requirements for fish, riparian vegetation, invertebrates, and geomorphic and nutrient processes. A novel part of the analysis is the conjunctive use of water for both purposes, e.g. wetland filling and then pumping for irrigation. The linkages between changed land use and surface/ground water outcomes are assessed using a Catchment Analysis Tool. An experimental design of different proportions of water going to the environment and consumptive uses showed potential trade-offs between agricultural, environmental and surface/ground water outcomes. These trade-offs were examined to assess the impact of alternative water management on catchment welfare, and provide information about setting SDLs.Water sharing, environment, agriculture, Murray-Darling Basin, Broken catchment, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q18, Q25, Q28,

Governing in the Anthropocene: are there cyber-systemic antidotes to the malaise of modern governance?

The Anthropocene imposes new challenges for governments, demanding capabilities for dealing with complexity and uncertainty. In this paper we examine how effective governing of social-biophysical dynamics is constrained by current processes and systems of government. Framing choices and structural determinants combine to create governance deficits in multiple domains, particularly in relation to the governing of complex larger-scale social – biophysical systems. Attempts to build capability for governing ‘wicked problems’ are relevant to sustainability science and Anthropocene governance, but these have mostly failed to become institutionalised. Two cases studies are reported to elucidate how the systemic dynamics of governing operate and fail in relation to espoused purpose. In the UK attempts to enact ‘joined-up’ government’ during the years of New Labour government reveal systemic flaws and consistent praxis failures. From Australia we report on water governance reforms with implications for a wide range of complex policy issues. We conclude that innovations are needed to build capacity for governing the unfolding surprises and inherent uncertainties of the Anthropocene. These include institutionalising, or structural incorporation, of cyber-systemic thinking/practices that can also enhance empowerment and creativity that underpins sustainability science

Economic assessment of acquiring water for environmental flows in the Murray Basin

This article is an economic analysis of reallocating River Murray Basin water from agriculture to the environment with and without the possibility of interregional water trade. Acquiring environmental flows as an equal percentage of water allocations from all irrigation regions in the Basin is estimated to reduce returns to irrigation. When the same volume of water is taken from selected low-value regions only, the net revenue reduction is less. In all scenarios considered, net revenue gains from freeing trade are estimated to outweigh the negative revenue effects of reallocating water for environmental flows. The model accounts for how stochastic weather affects market water demand, supply and requirements for environmental flows. Net irrigation revenue is estimated to be $75 million less than the baseline level for a scenario involving reallocating a constant volume of water for the environment in both wet and dry years. For a more realistic scenario involving more water for the environment in wet and less in dry years, estimated net revenue loss is reduced by 48 per cent to$39 million. Finally, the external salinity-related costs of water trading are estimated at around $1 million per annum, a quite modest amount compared to the direct irrigation benefits of trade.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Value of Returns to Land and Water and Costs of Degradation Vol 1 of 2

Volume 1 (Main Report), Consultancy report for the National Land and Water Resources Audit, Theme 6.1. This report presents new datasets developed through the National Land and Water Resources Audit that relate to economic aspects of natural resource management in Australia. There is a focus on resources used to support agriculture and resources impacted by agriculture. Consistent with protocols used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics, the database provides a new capacity to integrate natural resource information in Australia. The datasets are primarily built for the 1996/97 financial year, the year of an agricultural census.audit;Australia;natural resource management

Systematic Regional Planning for Multiple Objective Natural Resource Management. A Case Study in the South Australian River Murray Corridor.

The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of different policy options for encouraging the large scale NRM actions required for achieving stated regional resource condition targets for NRM. To achieve this, the concept of systematic regional planning is developed to identify geographic priorities for NRM actions that most cost effectively meet multiple-objective regional targets based on established biophysical and economic principles.Water;Australia;Rivers;Biodiversity;Natural Resource Management;Revegetation

Disposition of precipitation: Supply and Demand for Water Use by New Tree Plantations

As the greatest rainwater users among all vegetative land covers, tree plantations have been employed strategically to mitigate salinity and water-logging problems. However, large-scale commercial tree plantations in high rainfall areas reduce fresh water inflows to river systems supporting downstream communities, agricultural industries and wetland environmental assets. A bio-economic model was used to estimate economic demand for water by future upstream plantations in a sub-catchment (the 2.8 million ha Macquarie valley in NSW) of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Given four tree-product values, impacts were simulated under two settings: without and with the requirement that permanent water entitlements be purchased from downstream entitlement holders before establishing a tree plantation. Without this requirement, gains in economic surplus from expanding tree plantations exceeded economic losses by downstream irrigators, and stock and domestic water users, but resulted in reductions of up to 154 GL (gigalitres) in annual flows to wetland environments. With this requirement, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus, added to downstream gains, could total $330 million while preserving environmental flows. Extending downstream water markets to new upstream tree plantations, to equilibrate marginal values across water uses, helps ensure water entitlements are not diminished without compensation. Outcomes include better economic-efficiency, social-equity and environmental-sustainability.Environmental Economics and Policy, forest, environmental services, catchment, water sources, interception, entitlement, supply, demand, market, economic surplus, evapo-transpiration, urban water, irrigation, wetlands.,

An economic analysis of farm forestry as a means of controlling dryland salinity

Large areas of agricultural land under conventional crops and pastures are at risk of dryland salinisation in Australia. The salinisation problem can be controlled by strategic and large‐scale planting of trees; however, farm forestry enterprises evaluated with conventional discounting techniques do not generally rank as an attractive alternative to annual crops on productive land. In this article, an optimal control model that explicitly accounts for decline or improvement in land quality over a period of 40 years is presented. The optimal area planted to trees and the optimal groundwater‐table trajectory through time are determined under a variety of scenarios. Implications of the results for policy design are discussed.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Gaining Depth: State of Watershed Investment 2014

Last year, governments, businesses, and donors channeled $12.3 billion (B) toward nature-based solutions to the global water crisis. Water users and public funders were paying land managers to repair and protect forests, wetlands, and other natural systems as a flexible, costeffective strategy to ensure clean and reliable water supplies, resilience to natural disasters, and sustainable livelihoods. These deals paid for watershed protection and restoration across more than 365 million (M) hectares (ha) worldwide in 2013, an area larger than India.The value of investment in watershed services1 (IWS) - referring to funding for watershed restoration or protection that delivers benefits to society like aquifer recharge or erosion control - has been growing at anaverage rate of 12% per year. The number of operational programs grew by two thirds between 2011 and 2013, expanding in both scale and sophistication as program developers introduced new tools to track returns on watershed investment, coordinated efforts across political boundaries, and delivered additional benefits like sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity protection