Asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves under case-control sampling

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the positive predictive value (PPV) curve and the negative predictive value (NPV) curve are three measures of performance for a continuous diagnostic biomarker. The ROC, PPV and NPV curves are often estimated empirically to avoid assumptions about the distributional form of the biomarkers. Recently, there has been a push to incorporate group sequential methods into the design of diagnostic biomarker studies. A thorough understanding of the asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves will provide more flexibility when designing group sequential diagnostic biomarker studies. In this paper, we derive asymptotic theory for the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves under case-control sampling using sequential empirical process theory. We show that the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves converge to the sum of independent Kiefer processes and show how these results can be used to derive asymptotic results for summaries of the sequential empirical ROC, PPV and NPV curves.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS937 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

AUC Optimisation and Collaborative Filtering

In recommendation systems, one is interested in the ranking of the predicted items as opposed to other losses such as the mean squared error. Although a variety of ways to evaluate rankings exist in the literature, here we focus on the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) as it widely used and has a strong theoretical underpinning. In practical recommendation, only items at the top of the ranked list are presented to the users. With this in mind, we propose a class of objective functions over matrix factorisations which primarily represent a smooth surrogate for the real AUC, and in a special case we show how to prioritise the top of the list. The objectives are differentiable and optimised through a carefully designed stochastic gradient-descent-based algorithm which scales linearly with the size of the data. In the special case of square loss we show how to improve computational complexity by leveraging previously computed measures. To understand theoretically the underlying matrix factorisation approaches we study both the consistency of the loss functions with respect to AUC, and generalisation using Rademacher theory. The resulting generalisation analysis gives strong motivation for the optimisation under study. Finally, we provide computation results as to the efficacy of the proposed method using synthetic and real data

Online and Stochastic Gradient Methods for Non-decomposable Loss Functions

Modern applications in sensitive domains such as biometrics and medicine frequently require the use of non-decomposable loss functions such as precision@k, F-measure etc. Compared to point loss functions such as hinge-loss, these offer much more fine grained control over prediction, but at the same time present novel challenges in terms of algorithm design and analysis. In this work we initiate a study of online learning techniques for such non-decomposable loss functions with an aim to enable incremental learning as well as design scalable solvers for batch problems. To this end, we propose an online learning framework for such loss functions. Our model enjoys several nice properties, chief amongst them being the existence of efficient online learning algorithms with sublinear regret and online to batch conversion bounds. Our model is a provable extension of existing online learning models for point loss functions. We instantiate two popular losses, prec@k and pAUC, in our model and prove sublinear regret bounds for both of them. Our proofs require a novel structural lemma over ranked lists which may be of independent interest. We then develop scalable stochastic gradient descent solvers for non-decomposable loss functions. We show that for a large family of loss functions satisfying a certain uniform convergence property (that includes prec@k, pAUC, and F-measure), our methods provably converge to the empirical risk minimizer. Such uniform convergence results were not known for these losses and we establish these using novel proof techniques. We then use extensive experimentation on real life and benchmark datasets to establish that our method can be orders of magnitude faster than a recently proposed cutting plane method.Comment: 25 pages, 3 figures, To appear in the proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, NIPS 201

Margin-based Ranking and an Equivalence between AdaBoost and RankBoost

We study boosting algorithms for learning to rank. We give a general margin-based bound for ranking based on covering numbers for the hypothesis space. Our bound suggests that algorithms that maximize the ranking margin will generalize well. We then describe a new algorithm, smooth margin ranking, that precisely converges to a maximum ranking-margin solution. The algorithm is a modification of RankBoost, analogous to “approximate coordinate ascent boosting.” Finally, we prove that AdaBoost and RankBoost are equally good for the problems of bipartite ranking and classification in terms of their asymptotic behavior on the training set. Under natural conditions, AdaBoost achieves an area under the ROC curve that is equally as good as RankBoost’s; furthermore, RankBoost, when given a specific intercept, achieves a misclassification error that is as good as AdaBoost’s. This may help to explain the empirical observations made by Cortes andMohri, and Caruana and Niculescu-Mizil, about the excellent performance of AdaBoost as a bipartite ranking algorithm, as measured by the area under the ROC curve

One- and two-sample nonparametric tests for the signal-to-noise ratio based on record statistics

A new family of nonparametric statistics, the r-statistics, is introduced. It consists of counting the number of records of the cumulative sum of the sample. The single-sample r-statistic is almost as powerful as Student's t-statistic for Gaussian and uniformly distributed variables, and more powerful than the sign and Wilcoxon signed-rank statistics as long as the data are not too heavy-tailed. Three two-sample parametric r-statistics are proposed, one with a higher specificity but a smaller sensitivity than Mann-Whitney U-test and the other one a higher sensitivity but a smaller specificity. A nonparametric two-sample r-statistic is introduced, whose power is very close to that of Welch statistic for Gaussian or uniformly distributed variables.Comment: 12 pages, 13 figure