Causal Reasoning with Ancestral Graphs

Causal reasoning is primarily concerned with what would happen to a system under external interventions. In particular, we are often interested in predicting the probability distribution of some random variables that would result if some other variables were forced to take certain values. One prominent approach to tackling this problem is based on causal Bayesian networks, using directed acyclic graphs as causal diagrams to relate post-intervention probabilities to pre-intervention probabilities that are estimable from observational data. However, such causal diagrams are seldom fully testable given observational data. In consequence, many causal discovery algorithms based on data-mining can only output an equivalence class of causal diagrams (rather than a single one). This paper is concerned with causal reasoning given an equivalence class of causal diagrams, represented by a (partial) ancestral graph. We present two main results. The first result extends Pearl (1995)'s celebrated do-calculus to the context of ancestral graphs. In the second result, we focus on a key component of Pearl's calculus---the property of invariance under interventions, and give stronger graphical conditions for this property than those implied by the first result. The second result also improves the earlier, similar results due to Spirtes et al. (1993)

P.: A transformational characterization of markov equivalence for directed acyclic graphs with latent variables

Different directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) may be Markov equivalent in the sense that they entail the same conditional independence relations among the observed variables. Chickering (1995) provided a transformational characterization of Markov equivalence for DAGs (with no latent variables), which is useful in deriving properties shared by Markov equivalent DAGs, and, with certain generalization, is needed to prove the asymptotic correctness of a search procedure over Markov equivalence classes, known as the GES algorithm. For DAG models with latent variables, maximal ancestral graphs (MAGs) provide a neat representation that facilitates model search. However, no transformational characterization — analogous to Chickering’s — of Markov equivalent MAGs is yet available. This paper establishes such a characterization for directed MAGs, which we expect will have similar uses as it does for DAGs.