A new approach to onset detection: towards an empirical grounding of theoretical and speculative ideologies of musical performance

This article assesses aspects of the current state of a project which aims, with the help of computers and computer software, to segment soundfiles of vocal melodies into their component notes, identifying precisely when the onset of each note occurs, and then tracking the pitch trajectory of each note, especially in melodies employing a variety of non-standard temperaments, in which musical intervals smaller than 100 cents are ubiquitous. From there, we may proceed further, to describe many other “micro-features” of each of the notes, but for now our focus is on the onset times and pitch trajectories

Patterns of Scalable Bayesian Inference

Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge. In response to this challenge, there has been considerable recent work based on varying assumptions about model structure, underlying computational resources, and the importance of asymptotic correctness. As a result, there is a zoo of ideas with few clear overarching principles. In this paper, we seek to identify unifying principles, patterns, and intuitions for scaling Bayesian inference. We review existing work on utilizing modern computing resources with both MCMC and variational approximation techniques. From this taxonomy of ideas, we characterize the general principles that have proven successful for designing scalable inference procedures and comment on the path forward

History and scientific practice in the construction of an adequate philosophy of science: revisiting a Whewell/Mill debate

William Whewell raised a series of objections concerning John Stuart Mill’s philosophy of science which suggested that Mill’s views were not properly informed by the history of science or by adequate reflection on scientific practices. The aim of this paper is to revisit and evaluate this incisive Whewellian criticism of Mill’s views by assessing Mill’s account of Michael Faraday’s discovery of electrical induction. The historical evidence demonstrates that Mill’s reconstruction is an inadequate reconstruction of this historical episode and the scientific practices Faraday employed. But a study of Faraday’s research also raises some questions about Whewell’s characterization of this discovery. Thus, this example provides an opportunity to reconsider the debate between Whewell and Mill concerning the role of the sciences in the development of an adequate philosophy of scientific methodology.Keywords: Inductivism; Experiment; Theory; Methodology; Electromagnetism

Commodity Markets, Price Limiters and Speculative Price Dynamics

We develop a behavioral commodity market model with consumers, producers and heterogeneous speculators to characterize the nature of commodity price fluctuations and to explore the efectiveness of price stabilization schemes. Within our model, nonlinear interactions between market participants can create either bull or bear markets, or irregular price fluctuations between bulland bear markets. Both the imposition of a bottoming price level (to support producers) or a topping price level (to protect consumers) can reduce market price volatility. However, simple policy rules, such as price limiters, may have unexpected consequences in a complex environment: a minimum price level decreases the average price while a maximum price limit increases the average price. In addition, price limiters influence the price dynamics in an intricate way and may cause volatility clustering.commodity markets; price stabilization; simple limiters; technical and fundamental anaysis; bifurcation analysis; chaos control

Abstracts : policy research working paper series - numbers 1936-1988

This paper contains abstracts of Policy Research Working Paper series Numbers 1936-1988.Health Economics&Finance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Achieving Shared Growth,Environmental Economics&Policies,Poverty Assessment

On the inherent instability of international financial markets: Natural nonlinear interactions between stock and foreign exchange markets

We develop a novel financial market model in which the stock markets of two countries are linked via and with the foreign exchange market. To be precise, there are domestic and foreign speculators in each of the two stock markets which rely either on linear technical or linear fundamental trading strategies to determine their orders. Since foreign stock market speculators require foreign currency to conduct their trades, all three markets are connected. Our setup entails a natural nonlinearity which may cause persistent endogenous price dynamics. Moreover, we analytically show that market interactions can destabilize the model's fundamental steady state. --Stock prices,exchange rates,market stability,technical and fundamental analysis,nonlinear market interactions,endogenous dynamics