A Structural Investigation into the Price and Wage Dynamics in Hong Kong

This paper estimates the degree of wage and price flexibility of the Hong Kong economy with the use of a stylised dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed for the Hong Kong economy. It also studies the factors contributing to deflation in Hong Kong following the Asian financial crisis (i.e. during the period from 1998 to 2003) and finds that declining import prices were the main culprit. Consistent with earlier studies on the subject and anecdotal evidence, wages and prices in Hong Kong are found to be (relatively) flexible.DSGE, Bayesian Estimation, Nominal Rigidities

Central banks and asset prices: the role of the interest rate in volatility correction in the Romanian case

The speculative bubbles of asset prices, and especially their burst out, have a negative impact on the financial stability and also on the prices stability – the main objectives of central banks. As a consequence, a more attentive observation of the evolution of these prices is necessary. In the economic literature, opinions differ, oscillating between a total ignorance of the evolution of asset prices by the central banks and the extreme solution, consisting in considering them as the final purpose of the monetary policy. If the opportunity of the intervention is intensely analyzed, the debates related to the instruments of the intervention, differentiated depending on the nature of the assets, are almost inexistent. In this study, we intend to analyze these aspects and also to highlight the importance of dealing with the volatility of asset prices in the context of the development of the financial and real estate markets in Romania. We show that the interest rate instrument has a reduced importance in asset prices volatility correction.asset prices, central banks, interest rate

Asset Prices, Credit Growth, Monetary and Other Policies: An Australian Case Study

The long-running debate about the role of monetary policy in responding to rising asset prices has received renewed attention in the wake of the global financial crisis.This paper contributes to this debate by describing the Australian experience of a cycle in house prices and credit from 2002 to 2004, and discussing the role played by various policies during this episode. In particular, it focuses on the efforts by the Reserve Bank of Australia to draw attention to the risks associated with large, ongoing increases in housing prices and household borrowing.asset prices; credit growth; lending standards; monetary policy; regulatory policy

Real-time price discovery in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets

We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing "cash flow" and "discount rate" effects for equity valuation. This finding helps explain the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the high-frequency data, we document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects. JEL Klassifikation: F3, F4, G1, C

How are Inflation Targets Set?

This paper contributes to a better understanding of how inflation targets are set. First, we gather evidence on how inflation targets are set from official central bank and government publications and from a questionnaire of our own design. Second, we estimate the determinants of the level of the inflation target in 19 inflation-targeting countries using unbalanced panel interval regressions to deal with the issue that targets are typically set as a range rather than as a point. We find that both a higher level and higher variability of inflation are associated with a higher target. The setting of the inflation target is also found to have an important international dimension, because higher world inflation is positively correlated with inflation targets. Rapidly growing countries exhibit higher inflation targets. Our results also show that authorities establish a wider target range for the inflation rate when the macroeconomic environment is less stable. We find that central bank credibility is negatively associated with the level of the inflation target, suggesting that less credible central banks are likely to recognize the risks related to anchoring inflation expectations at low levels. On the other hand, government party orientation does not matter, even in less independent central banks.Central bank, credibility, independence, inflation, inflation targeting.

Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues

This paper reviews various approaches to the measurement of core inflation that have been proposed over the years using the stochastic approach to index numbers as a unifying framework. It begins with a review of how the concept of core inflation is used by the world’s major central banks, including some of the inflation-targeting central banks. The author provides a comprehensive review of many of the measures of core inflation that have been developed over the years and highlights some of the conceptual and practical problems associated with them.Inflation (Finance)

Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets

We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing “cash flow” and “discount rate” effects for equity valuation. This finding helps explain the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the high-frequency data, we document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects.Asset Pricing; Macroeconomic News Announcements; Financial Market Linkages; Market Microstructure; High-Frequency Data; Survey Data; Asset Return Volatility; Forecasting.

DISINFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY ARRANGEMENTS IN ROMANIA

Disinflation has been pursued successfully in Romania in recent years. Inflation came down from over 40 per cent in 2001 to 14 per cent in 2003 and is expected to be cca 9.5 per cent in 2004. By 2007 it should come down to around 3%. The benefits of a lowinflation environment are unquestionable, as price stability is the ultimate objective of monetary policy. In addition, low inflation is a pre-condition for EU accession. There only remains the other critical question, namely, what is the proper strategy to achieve the ultimate objective. Different central banks have adopted strategies which place different emphasize on the various pieces of information, or elements of their decision-making process or different aspects of their communication policies. Inflation targeting (IT) is one of those strategies.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40175/3/wp789.pd

Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets

We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing “cash flow” and “discount rate” effects for equity valuation. This finding helps explain the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the high-frequency data, we document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects.Asset Pricing, Macroeconomic News Announcements, Financial Market Linkages, Market Microstructure, High-Frequency Data, Survey Data, Asset Return Volatility, Forecasting