Soft systems methodology: a context within a 50-year retrospective of OR/MS

Soft systems methodology (SSM) has been used in the practice of operations research and management science OR/MS) since the early 1970s. In the 1990s, it emerged as a viable academic discipline. Unfortunately, its proponents consider SSM and traditional systems thinking to be mutually exclusive. Despite the differences claimed by SSM proponents between the two, they have been complementary. An extensive sampling of the OR/MS literature over its entire lifetime demonstrates the richness with which the non-SSM literature has been addressing the very same issues as does SSM

РОЛЬ И МЕТОДЫ ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ В МОДЕРНИЗАЦИИ ЭКОНОМИКИ

Technological forecasting is a process of prediction future technological characteristics, their distribution in time and the rate at which technological parameters, attributes and capabilities change. An attempt is made in the paper to scrutinize the nature, history and practical application of technological forecasting, main methods and techniques currently used for these purposes, feasibility limits of each method, factors determining the choice of the most suitable method. Assessment is given to technological forecasting development prospects.Технологическое прогнозирование – это процесс предсказания будущих характеристик технологий, их временного распределения и степени изменения технологических параметров, атрибутов и возможностей. В статье сделана попытка рассмотрения природы технологического прогнозирования и истории его практического применения, проведено исследование основных используемых для этого в настоящее время методов и границ применимости каждого метода, а также факторов, обусловливающих выбор наиболее подходящего метода. Дана характеристика перспектив развития технологического прогнозирования