Chance-Constrained Equilibrium in Electricity Markets With Asymmetric Forecasts

We develop a stochastic equilibrium model for an electricity market with asymmetric renewable energy forecasts. In our setting, market participants optimize their profits using public information about a conditional expectation of energy production but use private information about the forecast error distribution. This information is given in the form of samples and incorporated into profit-maximizing optimizations of market participants through chance constraints. We model information asymmetry by varying the sample size of participants' private information. We show that with more information available, the equilibrium gradually converges to the ideal solution provided by the perfect information scenario. Under information scarcity, however, we show that the market converges to the ideal equilibrium if participants are to infer the forecast error distribution from the statistical properties of the data at hand or share their private forecasts

Optimal Net-Load Balancing in Smart Grids with High PV Penetration

Mitigating Supply-Demand mismatch is critical for smooth power grid operation. Traditionally, load curtailment techniques such as Demand Response (DR) have been used for this purpose. However, these cannot be the only component of a net-load balancing framework for Smart Grids with high PV penetration. These grids can sometimes exhibit supply surplus causing over-voltages. Supply curtailment techniques such as Volt-Var Optimizations are complex and computationally expensive. This increases the complexity of net-load balancing systems used by the grid operator and limits their scalability. Recently new technologies have been developed that enable the rapid and selective connection of PV modules of an installation to the grid. Taking advantage of these advancements, we develop a unified optimal net-load balancing framework which performs both load and solar curtailment. We show that when the available curtailment values are discrete, this problem is NP-hard and develop bounded approximation algorithms for minimizing the curtailment cost. Our algorithms produce fast solutions, given the tight timing constraints required for grid operation. We also incorporate the notion of fairness to ensure that curtailment is evenly distributed among all the nodes. Finally, we develop an online algorithm which performs net-load balancing using only data available for the current interval. Using both theoretical analysis and practical evaluations, we show that our net-load balancing algorithms provide solutions which are close to optimal in a small amount of time.Comment: 11 pages. To be published in the 4th ACM International Conference on Systems for Energy-Efficient Built Environments (BuildSys 17) Changes from previous version: Fixed a bug in Algorithm 1 which was causing some min cost solutions to be misse