Traffic flow modeling and forecasting using cellular automata and neural networks : a thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Computer Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

In This thesis fine grids are adopted in Cellular Automata (CA) models. The fine-grid models are able to describe traffic flow in detail allowing position, speed, acceleration and deceleration of vehicles simulated in a more realistic way. For urban straight roads, two types of traffic flow, free and car-following flow, have been simulated. A novel five-stage speed-changing CA model is developed to describe free flow. The 1.5-second headway, based on field data, is used to simulate car-following processes, which corrects the headway of 1 second used in all previous CA models. Novel and realistic CA models, based on the Normal Acceptable Space (NAS) method, are proposed to systematically simulate driver behaviour and interactions between drivers to enter single-lane Two-Way Stop-Controlled (TWSC) intersections and roundabouts. The NAS method is based on the two following Gaussian distributions. Distribution of space required for all drivers to enter intersections or roundabouts is assumed to follow a Gaussian distribution, which corresponds to heterogeneity of driver behaviour. While distribution of space required for a single driver to enter an intersection or roundabout is assumed to follow another Gaussian distribution, which corresponds to inconsistency of driver behavior. The effects of passing lanes on single-lane highway traffic are investigated using fine grids CA. Vehicles entering, exiting from and changing lanes on passing lane sections are discussed in detail. In addition, a Genetic Algorithm-based Neural Network (GANN) method is proposed to predict Short-term Traffic Flow (STF) in urban networks, which is expected to be helpful for traffic control. Prediction accuracy and generalization ability of NN are improved by optimizing the number of neurons in the hidden layer and connection weights of NN using genetic operations such as selection, crossover and mutation

Modelling unsignalised traffic flow with reference to urban and interurban networks

A new variant of cellular automata (CA) models is proposed, based on Minimum Acceptable Space (MAP) rules, to study unsignalised traffic flow at two-way stop-controlled (TWSC) intersections and roundabouts in urban and interurban networks. Categorisation of different driver behaviour is possible, based on different space requirements (MAPs), which allow a variety of conditions to be considered. Driver behaviour may be randomly categorised as rational, (when optimum conditions of entry are realised), conservative, urgent and radical, with specified probabilities at each time step. The model can successfully simulate both heterogeneous and inconsistent driver behaviour and interactions at the different road features. The impact of driver behaviour on the overall performance of intersections and roundabouts can be quantified and conditions for gridlock determined. Theorems on roundabout size and throughput are given. The relationship between these measures is clearly non-monotonic. Whereas previous models consider these road features in terms of T-intersections, our approach is new in that each is a unified system. Hence, the relationship between arrival rates on entrance roads can be studied and critical arrival rates can be identified under varied traffic and geometric conditions. The potential for extending the model to entire urban and interurban networks is discussed

Heterogenous motorised traffic flow modelling using cellular automata

Traffic congestion is a major problem in most major cities around the world with few signs that this is diminishing, despite management efforts. In planning traffic management and control strategies at urban and inter urban level, understanding the factors involved in vehicular progression is vital. Most work to date has, however, been restricted to single vehicle-type traffic. Study of heterogeneous traffic movements for urban single and multi-lane roads has been limited, even for developed countries and motorised traffic mix, (with a broader spectrum of vehicle type applicable for cities in the developing world). The aim of the research, presented in this thesis, was thus to propose and develop a model for heterogeneous motorised traffic, applicable to situations, involving common urban and interurban road features in the western or developed world. A further aim of the work was to provide a basis for comparison with current models for homogeneous vehicle type. A two-component cellular automata (2-CA) methodology is used to examine traffic patterns for single-lane, multi-lane controlled and uncontrolled intersections and roundabouts. In this heterogeneous model (binary mix), space mapping rules are used for each vehicle type, namely long (double-unit length) and short (single-unit length) vehicles. Vehicle type is randomly categorised as long (LV) or short (SV) with different fractions considered. Update rules are defined based on given and neighbouring cell states at each time step, on manoeuvre complexity and on acceptable space criteria for different vehicle types. Inclusion of heterogeneous traffic units increases the algorithm complexity as different criteria apply to different cellular elements, but mixed traffic is clearly more reflective of the real-world situation. The impact of vehicle mix on the overall performance of an intersection and roundabout (one-lane one-way, one-lane two-way and two-lane two-way) has been examined. The model for mixed traffic was also compared to similar models for homogeneous vehicle type, with throughput, queue length and other metrics explored. The relationship between arrival rates on the entrance roads and throughput for mixed traffic was studied and it was found that, as for the homogeneous case, critical arrival rates can be identified for various traffic conditions. Investigation of performance metrics for heterogeneous traffic (short and long vehicles), can be shown to reproduce main aspects of real-world configuration performance. This has been validated, using local Dublin traffic data. The 2-CA model can be shown to simulate successfully both homogeneous and heterogeneous traffic over a range of parameter values for arrival, turning rates, different urban configurations and a distribution of vehicle types. The developed model has potential to extend its use to linked transport network elements and can also incorporate further motorised and non-motorised vehicle diversity for various road configurations. It is anticipated that detailed studies, such as those presented here, can support efforts on traffic management and aid in the design of optimisation strategies for traffic flow

The design and simulation of traffic networks in virtual environments

For over half a century, researchers from a diverse set of disciplines have been studying the behaviour of traffic flow to better understand the causes of traffic congestion, accidents, and related phenomena. As the global population continues to rise, there is an increasing demand for more efficient and effective transportation infrastructures that are able to accommodate a greater number of civilians without compromising travel times, journey quality, cost, or accessibility. With recent advances in computing technology, transportation infrastructures are now typically developed using design and simulation packages that enable engineers to accurately model large-scale road networks and evaluate their designs through visual simulation. However, as these projects increase in scale and complexity, methodologies to intuitively design more complex and realistic simulations are highly desirable. The need of such technology translates across to the entertainment industry, where traffic simulations are integrated into computer games, television, film, and virtual tourism applications to enhance the realism and believability of the simulated scenario. In this thesis two significant challenges related to the design and simulation of traffic networks for use in virtual environments are presented. The first challenge is the development of intuitive techniques to assist the design and construction of high-fidelity three-dimensional road networks for use in both urban and rural virtual environments. The second challenge considers the implementation of computational models to accurately simulate the behaviour of drivers and pedestrians in transportation networks, in real time. An overview of the literature in the field is presented in this work with novel contributions relating to the challenges defined above

Pedestrian–vehicle interaction at unsignalized crosswalks: a systematic review

A systematic review was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA), to generate a document that supports the development of future research, compiling the various studies focused on the analysis of the pedestrian-vehicle interaction at unsignalized crosswalks. Firstly, 381 studies were identified by applying the search protocol in the database sources; however, only nine studies were included in this review because most of the studies are not focused on this type of crosswalks or have not considered the micro-simulation perspective. For each study, an analysis of the used methodology for data collection was carried out, in addition to what type of model it was applied, including the variables that represent the PVI (Pedestrian-Vehicle Interaction). The outcomes obtained by this systematic review show that although the video camera observation technique is the most used, it is possible to complement them with other tools to add specific field information. Additionally, variables such as the adjacent yields, speed variables vehicles, pedestrian attitude, and the number of pedestrians waiting at the crossing were those most used in the cellular automata model or micro-simulation, which are the commonly developed models to simulate this interaction.This research was funded by “Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia”, through the project AnPeB–Pedestrian behavior analysis based on simulated environments and their incorporation into risk modeling (PTDC/ECMTRA/3568/2014)

Mobility Models for Vehicular Communications

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-15497-8_11The experimental evaluation of vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) implies elevate economic cost and organizational complexity, especially in presence of solutions that target large-scale deployments. As performance evaluation is however mandatory prior to the actual implementation of VANETs, simulation has established as the de-facto standard for the analysis of dedicated network protocols and architectures. The vehicular environment makes network simulation particularly challenging, as it requires the faithful modelling not only of the network stack, but also of all phenomena linked to road traffic dynamics and radio-frequency signal propagation in highly mobile environments. In this chapter, we will focus on the first aspect, and discuss the representation of mobility in VANET simulations. 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