Fast learning rates in statistical inference through aggregation

We develop minimax optimal risk bounds for the general learning task consisting in predicting as well as the best function in a reference set $\mathcal{G}$ up to the smallest possible additive term, called the convergence rate. When the reference set is finite and when $n$ denotes the size of the training data, we provide minimax convergence rates of the form $C(\frac{\log|\mathcal{G}|}{n})^v$ with tight evaluation of the positive constant $C$ and with exact $0<v\le1$, the latter value depending on the convexity of the loss function and on the level of noise in the output distribution. The risk upper bounds are based on a sequential randomized algorithm, which at each step concentrates on functions having both low risk and low variance with respect to the previous step prediction function. Our analysis puts forward the links between the probabilistic and worst-case viewpoints, and allows to obtain risk bounds unachievable with the standard statistical learning approach. One of the key ideas of this work is to use probabilistic inequalities with respect to appropriate (Gibbs) distributions on the prediction function space instead of using them with respect to the distribution generating the data. The risk lower bounds are based on refinements of the Assouad lemma taking particularly into account the properties of the loss function. Our key example to illustrate the upper and lower bounds is to consider the $L_q$-regression setting for which an exhaustive analysis of the convergence rates is given while $q$ ranges in $[1;+\infty[$.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS623 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Randomized Reference Classifier with Gaussian Distribution and Soft Confusion Matrix Applied to the Improving Weak Classifiers

In this paper, an issue of building the RRC model using probability distributions other than beta distribution is addressed. More precisely, in this paper, we propose to build the RRR model using the truncated normal distribution. Heuristic procedures for expected value and the variance of the truncated-normal distribution are also proposed. The proposed approach is tested using SCM-based model for testing the consequences of applying the truncated normal distribution in the RRC model. The experimental evaluation is performed using four different base classifiers and seven quality measures. The results showed that the proposed approach is comparable to the RRC model built using beta distribution. What is more, for some base classifiers, the truncated-normal-based SCM algorithm turned out to be better at discovering objects coming from minority classes.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1901.0882

Multi-party Poisoning through Generalized pp-Tampering

In a poisoning attack against a learning algorithm, an adversary tampers with a fraction of the training data $T$ with the goal of increasing the classification error of the constructed hypothesis/model over the final test distribution. In the distributed setting, $T$ might be gathered gradually from $m$ data providers $P_1,\dots,P_m$ who generate and submit their shares of $T$ in an online way. In this work, we initiate a formal study of $(k,p)$-poisoning attacks in which an adversary controls $k\in[n]$ of the parties, and even for each corrupted party $P_i$, the adversary submits some poisoned data $T'_i$ on behalf of $P_i$ that is still "$(1-p)$-close" to the correct data $T_i$ (e.g., $1-p$ fraction of $T'_i$ is still honestly generated). For $k=m$, this model becomes the traditional notion of poisoning, and for $p=1$ it coincides with the standard notion of corruption in multi-party computation. We prove that if there is an initial constant error for the generated hypothesis $h$, there is always a $(k,p)$-poisoning attacker who can decrease the confidence of $h$ (to have a small error), or alternatively increase the error of $h$, by $\Omega(p \cdot k/m)$. Our attacks can be implemented in polynomial time given samples from the correct data, and they use no wrong labels if the original distributions are not noisy. At a technical level, we prove a general lemma about biasing bounded functions $f(x_1,\dots,x_n)\in[0,1]$ through an attack model in which each block $x_i$ might be controlled by an adversary with marginal probability $p$ in an online way. When the probabilities are independent, this coincides with the model of $p$-tampering attacks, thus we call our model generalized $p$-tampering. We prove the power of such attacks by incorporating ideas from the context of coin-flipping attacks into the $p$-tampering model and generalize the results in both of these areas

Counterfactual Estimation and Optimization of Click Metrics for Search Engines

Optimizing an interactive system against a predefined online metric is particularly challenging, when the metric is computed from user feedback such as clicks and payments. The key challenge is the counterfactual nature: in the case of Web search, any change to a component of the search engine may result in a different search result page for the same query, but we normally cannot infer reliably from search log how users would react to the new result page. Consequently, it appears impossible to accurately estimate online metrics that depend on user feedback, unless the new engine is run to serve users and compared with a baseline in an A/B test. This approach, while valid and successful, is unfortunately expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we propose to address this problem using causal inference techniques, under the contextual-bandit framework. This approach effectively allows one to run (potentially infinitely) many A/B tests offline from search log, making it possible to estimate and optimize online metrics quickly and inexpensively. Focusing on an important component in a commercial search engine, we show how these ideas can be instantiated and applied, and obtain very promising results that suggest the wide applicability of these techniques