Survey of Attack Projection, Prediction, and Forecasting in Cyber Security

This paper provides a survey of prediction, and forecasting methods used in cyber security. Four main tasks are discussed first, attack projection and intention recognition, in which there is a need to predict the next move or the intentions of the attacker, intrusion prediction, in which there is a need to predict upcoming cyber attacks, and network security situation forecasting, in which we project cybersecurity situation in the whole network. Methods and approaches for addressing these tasks often share the theoretical background and are often complementary. In this survey, both methods based on discrete models, such as attack graphs, Bayesian networks, and Markov models, and continuous models, such as time series and grey models, are surveyed, compared, and contrasted. We further discuss machine learning and data mining approaches, that have gained a lot of attention recently and appears promising for such a constantly changing environment, which is cyber security. The survey also focuses on the practical usability of the methods and problems related to their evaluation

Performance Evaluation for the Sustainable Supply Chain Management

Supply chain SC activities transform natural resources, raw materials, and components into various finished products that are delivered to end customers. A high efficient SC would bring great benefits to an enterprise such as integrated resources, reduced logistics costs, improved logistics efficiency, and high quality of overall level of services. In contrast, an inefficient SC will bring additional transaction costs, information management costs, and resource waste, reduce the production capacity of all enterprises on the chain, and unsatisfactory customer relationships. So the evaluation of a SC is important for an enterprise to survive in a competitive market in a globalized business environment. Therefore, it is important to research the various methods, performance indicator systems, and technology for evaluating, monitoring, predicting, and optimizing the performance of a SC. A typical procedure of the performance evaluation (PE) of a SC is to use the established evaluation performance indicators, employ an analytical method, follow a given procedure, to carry out quantitatively or qualitatively comparative analysis to provide the objective and accurate evaluation of a SC performance in a selected operation period. Various research works have been carried out in proposing the performance indicator systems and methods for SC performance evaluations. But there are no widely accepted indicator systems that can be applied in practical SC performance evaluations due to the fact that the indicators in different systems have been defined without a common understanding of the meanings and the relationships between them, and they are nonlinear and very complicated

A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis: Problems, Methods, Spotlights and Applications

Enterprise financial risk analysis aims at predicting the enterprises' future financial risk.Due to the wide application, enterprise financial risk analysis has always been a core research issue in finance. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on risk management, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in enterprise financial risk analysis. Due to the rapid expansion of the enterprise financial risk analysis, especially from the computer science and big data perspective, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing enterprise financial risk researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies of enterprise financial risk analysis in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. This paper provides a systematic literature review of over 300 articles published on enterprise risk analysis modelling over a 50-year period, 1968 to 2022. We first introduce the formal definition of enterprise risk as well as the related concepts. Then, we categorized the representative works in terms of risk type and summarized the three aspects of risk analysis. Finally, we compared the analysis methods used to model the enterprise financial risk. Our goal is to clarify current cutting-edge research and its possible future directions to model enterprise risk, aiming to fully understand the mechanisms of enterprise risk communication and influence and its application on corporate governance, financial institution and government regulation

Study on the efficiency evolution trend of coordinated development of the human–earth system in minority areas of Yunnan, China

IntroductionImproving the development efficiency of human–earth systems is a practical requirement for achieving high-quality regional development.MethodsThe article designs a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model under the constraints of coordinated development degree from the perspective of the interaction of natural, economic and social systems to evaluate the development efficiency of human–earth systems and uses GA-BP neural network model for the prediction of the development efficiency of the human–earth system of each geographical unit from 2018 to 2025 based on the panel data of the 8 ethnic autonomous prefectures in Yunnan Province form 1995 to 2017.ResultsThe study found that from 1995 to 2017, the coordination degree and the coordinated development degree of the human–earth system in Yunnan minority areas were on the rise, but mainly manifested in the coordination of low development degree, and the average comprehensive efficiency value of input and output showed a downward trend. The prediction results for 2018–2025 showed that the human–earth system in Yunnan minority areas will be at a low efficient coordinated development level, and the coordinated development degree will show a downward trend. The development degree of natural subsystems in many ethnic minority areas showed negative growth and was negatively correlated with the development degree of economic and social subsystems. In 2025, except Honghe and Banna, the other six regions will be inefficient regions. Among these six inefficient regions, only Wenshan has input redundancy in the natural subsystem, but the phenomenon of input redundancy in the economic subsystem and insufficient output in the natural subsystem is common, indicating that industrial pollution has been controlled to a certain extent in most regions, but the economic investment mode and resource recycling efficiency need to be optimized and improved.DiscussionOur results could enrich the content of human–earth system characteristics in typical regions, and also provide theoretical support for regional coordinated development in China

Enhancing statistical wind speed forecasting models : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering at Massey University, Manawatū Campus, New Zealand

In recent years, wind speed forecasting models have seen significant development and growth. In particular, hybrid models have been emerging since the last decade. Hybrid models combine two or more techniques from several categories, with each model utilizing its distinct strengths. Mainly, data-driven models that include statistical and Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) models are deployed in hybrid models for shorter forecasting time horizons (< 6hrs). Literature studies show that machine learning models have gained enormous potential owing to their accuracy and robustness. On the other hand, only a handful of studies are available on the performance enhancement of statistical models, despite the fact that hybrid models are incomplete without statistical models. To address the knowledge gap, this thesis identified the shortcomings of traditional statistical models while enhancing prediction accuracy. Three statistical models are considered for analyses: Grey Model [GM(1,1)], Markov Chain, and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing models. Initially, the problems that limit the forecasting models' applicability are highlighted. Such issues include negative wind speed predictions, failure of predetermined accuracy levels, non-optimal estimates, and additional computational cost with limited performance. To address these concerns, improved forecasting models are proposed considering wind speed data of Palmerston North, New Zealand. Several methodologies have been developed to improve the model performance and fulfill the necessary and sufficient conditions. These approaches include adjusting dynamic moving window, self-adaptive state categorization algorithm, a similar approach to the leave-one-out method, and mixed initialization method. Keeping in view the application of the hybrid methods, novel MODWT-ARIMA-Markov and AGO-HDES models are further proposed as secondary objectives. Also, a comprehensive analysis is presented by comparing sixteen models from three categories, each for four case studies, three rolling windows, and three forecasting horizons. Overall, the improved models showed higher accuracy than their counter traditional models. Finally, the future directions are highlighted that need subsequent research to improve forecasting performance further

Applied Metaheuristic Computing

For decades, Applied Metaheuristic Computing (AMC) has been a prevailing optimization technique for tackling perplexing engineering and business problems, such as scheduling, routing, ordering, bin packing, assignment, facility layout planning, among others. This is partly because the classic exact methods are constrained with prior assumptions, and partly due to the heuristics being problem-dependent and lacking generalization. AMC, on the contrary, guides the course of low-level heuristics to search beyond the local optimality, which impairs the capability of traditional computation methods. This topic series has collected quality papers proposing cutting-edge methodology and innovative applications which drive the advances of AMC

Design and validation of novel methods for long-term road traffic forecasting

132 p.Road traffic management is a critical aspect for the design and planning of complex urban transport networks for which vehicle flow forecasting is an essential component. As a testimony of its paramount relevance in transport planning and logistics, thousands of scientific research works have covered the traffic forecasting topic during the last 50 years. In the beginning most approaches relied on autoregressive models and other analysis methods suited for time series data. During the last two decades, the development of new technology, platforms and techniques for massive data processing under the Big Data umbrella, the availability of data from multiple sources fostered by the Open Data philosophy and an ever-growing need of decision makers for accurate traffic predictions have shifted the spotlight to data-driven procedures. Even in this convenient context, with abundance of open data to experiment and advanced techniques to exploit them, most predictive models reported in literature aim for shortterm forecasts, and their performance degrades when the prediction horizon is increased. Long-termforecasting strategies are more scarce, and commonly based on the detection and assignment to patterns. These approaches can perform reasonably well unless an unexpected event provokes non predictable changes, or if the allocation to a pattern is inaccurate.The main core of the work in this Thesis has revolved around datadriven traffic forecasting, ultimately pursuing long-term forecasts. This has broadly entailed a deep analysis and understanding of the state of the art, and dealing with incompleteness of data, among other lesser issues. Besides, the second part of this dissertation presents an application outlook of the developed techniques, providing methods and unexpected insights of the local impact of traffic in pollution. The obtained results reveal that the impact of vehicular emissions on the pollution levels is overshadowe