Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Imitating Driver Behavior with Generative Adversarial Networks

The ability to accurately predict and simulate human driving behavior is critical for the development of intelligent transportation systems. Traditional modeling methods have employed simple parametric models and behavioral cloning. This paper adopts a method for overcoming the problem of cascading errors inherent in prior approaches, resulting in realistic behavior that is robust to trajectory perturbations. We extend Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning to the training of recurrent policies, and we demonstrate that our model outperforms rule-based controllers and maximum likelihood models in realistic highway simulations. Our model both reproduces emergent behavior of human drivers, such as lane change rate, while maintaining realistic control over long time horizons.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

A Human Driver Model for Autonomous Lane Changing in Highways: Predictive Fuzzy Markov Game Driving Strategy

This study presents an integrated hybrid solution to mandatory lane changing problem to deal with accident avoidance by choosing a safe gap in highway driving. To manage this, a comprehensive treatment to a lane change active safety design is proposed from dynamics, control, and decision making aspects. My effort first goes on driver behaviors and relating human reasoning of threat in driving for modeling a decision making strategy. It consists of two main parts; threat assessment in traffic participants, (TV s) states, and decision making. The first part utilizes an complementary threat assessment of TV s, relative to the subject vehicle, SV , by evaluating the traffic quantities. Then I propose a decision strategy, which is based on Markov decision processes (MDPs) that abstract the traffic environment with a set of actions, transition probabilities, and corresponding utility rewards. Further, the interactions of the TV s are employed to set up a real traffic condition by using game theoretic approach. The question to be addressed here is that how an autonomous vehicle optimally interacts with the surrounding vehicles for a gap selection so that more effective performance of the overall traffic flow can be captured. Finding a safe gap is performed via maximizing an objective function among several candidates. A future prediction engine thus is embedded in the design, which simulates and seeks for a solution such that the objective function is maximized at each time step over a horizon. The combined system therefore forms a predictive fuzzy Markov game (FMG) since it is to perform a predictive interactive driving strategy to avoid accidents for a given traffic environment. I show the effect of interactions in decision making process by proposing both cooperative and non-cooperative Markov game strategies for enhanced traffic safety and mobility. This level is called the higher level controller. I further focus on generating a driver controller to complement the automated car’s safe driving. To compute this, model predictive controller (MPC) is utilized. The success of the combined decision process and trajectory generation is evaluated with a set of different traffic scenarios in dSPACE virtual driving environment. Next, I consider designing an active front steering (AFS) and direct yaw moment control (DYC) as the lower level controller that performs a lane change task with enhanced handling performance in the presence of varying front and rear cornering stiffnesses. I propose a new control scheme that integrates active front steering and the direct yaw moment control to enhance the vehicle handling and stability. I obtain the nonlinear tire forces with Pacejka model, and convert the nonlinear tire stiffnesses to parameter space to design a linear parameter varying controller (LPV) for combined AFS and DYC to perform a commanded lane change task. Further, the nonlinear vehicle lateral dynamics is modeled with Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) framework. A state-feedback fuzzy H∞ controller is designed for both stability and tracking reference. Simulation study confirms that the performance of the proposed methods is quite satisfactory