12,399 research outputs found
Survey of Attack Projection, Prediction, and Forecasting in Cyber Security
This paper provides a survey of prediction, and forecasting methods used in cyber security. Four main tasks are discussed first, attack projection and intention recognition, in which there is a need to predict the next move or the intentions of the attacker, intrusion prediction, in which there is a need to predict upcoming cyber attacks, and network security situation forecasting, in which we project cybersecurity situation in the whole network. Methods and approaches for addressing these tasks often share the theoretical background and are often complementary. In this survey, both methods based on discrete models, such as attack graphs, Bayesian networks, and Markov models, and continuous models, such as time series and grey models, are surveyed, compared, and contrasted. We further discuss machine learning and data mining approaches, that have gained a lot of attention recently and appears promising for such a constantly changing environment, which is cyber security. The survey also focuses on the practical usability of the methods and problems related to their evaluation
QoE Modelling, Measurement and Prediction: A Review
In mobile computing systems, users can access network services anywhere and
anytime using mobile devices such as tablets and smart phones. These devices
connect to the Internet via network or telecommunications operators. Users
usually have some expectations about the services provided to them by different
operators. Users' expectations along with additional factors such as cognitive
and behavioural states, cost, and network quality of service (QoS) may
determine their quality of experience (QoE). If users are not satisfied with
their QoE, they may switch to different providers or may stop using a
particular application or service. Thus, QoE measurement and prediction
techniques may benefit users in availing personalized services from service
providers. On the other hand, it can help service providers to achieve lower
user-operator switchover. This paper presents a review of the state-the-art
research in the area of QoE modelling, measurement and prediction. In
particular, we investigate and discuss the strengths and shortcomings of
existing techniques. Finally, we present future research directions for
developing novel QoE measurement and prediction technique
Tiresias: Predicting Security Events Through Deep Learning
With the increased complexity of modern computer attacks, there is a need for
defenders not only to detect malicious activity as it happens, but also to
predict the specific steps that will be taken by an adversary when performing
an attack. However this is still an open research problem, and previous
research in predicting malicious events only looked at binary outcomes (e.g.,
whether an attack would happen or not), but not at the specific steps that an
attacker would undertake. To fill this gap we present Tiresias, a system that
leverages Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to predict future events on a
machine, based on previous observations. We test Tiresias on a dataset of 3.4
billion security events collected from a commercial intrusion prevention
system, and show that our approach is effective in predicting the next event
that will occur on a machine with a precision of up to 0.93. We also show that
the models learned by Tiresias are reasonably stable over time, and provide a
mechanism that can identify sudden drops in precision and trigger a retraining
of the system. Finally, we show that the long-term memory typical of RNNs is
key in performing event prediction, rendering simpler methods not up to the
task
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