Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction

Is the Impact of ECB Monetary Policy on EMU Stock Market Returns asymmetric?

This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns of the EUM countries at aggregate levels and, for six industry portfolios in France, Italy, Germany, Belgium and Netherlands respectively. In this work, a different measures of monetary policy innovation is adopted. The empirical results, in line with results from previous studies, indicate that for the EUM stock markets there is statistically significant relationship between policy innovations and stock markets returns. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that positive monetary policy shock (e.g. contractionary policy) is an event that decrease future cash flow. Moreover, the finding from country size and industry portfolios indicate that monetary policy have larger asymmetric effect in industry portfolios of big countries (Italy, France and Germany) compared to the same industry portfolios of small countries (Netherlands and Belgium). However, the sign of the impact is for both groups the same. The policy implications of the analysis can be summarized as follows: if the ECB follows a contractionary monetary policy then the effect on the stock market returns will be lengthier and larger in bear markets. On the other hand, following the same policy, the effect of the ECB actions on the EMU stock markets returns will be smaller in bull markets. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral, at least in the short run and, moreover, that there is some role for anticipated ECB monetary policy to affect the stock market but that this role will also have asymmetric impacts on each single EMU country’s stock market.Monetary Policy, Markov-switching, Stock returns.

Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper, we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.Credit ratings, probit, state dependence

Community Bank Assessment of Agricultural Portfolio Risk Exposure: The Literature and the Methods in Use

Agricultural Finance,

Forecasting Leading Death Causes in Australia using Extended CreditRisk++

Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this framework, deaths are driven by common latent stochastic risk factors which may be interpreted as death causes like neoplasms, circulatory diseases or idiosyncratic components. These common factors introduce dependence between policyholders in annuity portfolios or between death events in population. This framework can be used to construct life tables based on mortality rate forecast. Moreover this framework allows stress testing and, therefore, offers insight into how certain health scenarios influence annuity payments of an insurer. Such scenarios may include improvement in health treatments or better medication. In this paper, using publicly available data for Australia, we estimate the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo method to identify leading death causes across all age groups including long term forecast for 2031 and 2051. On top of general reduced mortality, the proportion of deaths for certain certain causes has changed massively over the period 1987 to 2011. Our model forecasts suggest that if these trends persist, then the future gives a whole new picture of mortality for people aged above 40 years. Neoplasms will become the overall number-one death cause. Moreover, deaths due to mental and behavioural disorders are very likely to surge whilst deaths due to circulatory diseases will tend to decrease. This potential increase in deaths due to mental and behavioural disorders for older ages will have a massive impact on social systems as, typically, such patients need long-term geriatric care.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1505.0475

On Modeling Economic Default Time: A Reduced-Form Model Approach

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, much attention has been paid to investigating the appropriateness of the current practice of default risk modeling in banking, finance and insurance industries. A recent empirical study by Guo et al.(2008) shows that the time difference between the economic and recorded default dates has a significant impact on recovery rate estimates. Guo et al.(2011) develop a theoretical structural firm asset value model for a firm default process that embeds the distinction of these two default times. To be more consistent with the practice, in this paper, we assume the market participants cannot observe the firm asset value directly and developed a reduced-form model to characterize the economic and recorded default times. We derive the probability distribution of these two default times. The numerical study on the difference between these two shows that our proposed model can both capture the features and fit the empirical data.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1012.0843 by other author

Evidence of Non-Markovian Behavior in the Process of Bank Rating Migrations

This paper estimates transition matrices for the ratings on financial institutions, using an unusually informative data set. We show that the process of rating migration exhibits significant non-Markovian behavior, in the sense that the transition intensiFinancial institutions, macroeconomic variables, capitalization, supervision, transition intensities

A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models

This note is intended to share some observations regarding a non-exhaustive collection of the early warning literature from 1971 to 2011. Evolution of the interest in early warning models, methodological spectrum of studies and coverage of economic variables are briefly discussed in addition to providing a bibliography.Early warning systems, bibliometric analysis

Crisis and Hedge Fund Risk

We study the effect of financial crises on hedge fund risk. Using a regime-switching beta model, we separate systematic and idiosyncratic components of hedge fund exposure. The systematic exposure to various risk factors is conditional on market volatility conditions. We find that in the high-volatility regime (when the market is rolling-down and is likely to be in a crisis state) most strategies are negatively and significantly exposed to the Large-Small and Credit Spread risk factors. This suggests that liquidity risk and credit risk are potentially common factors for different hedge fund strategies in the down-state of the market, when volatility is high and returns are very low. We further explore the possibility that all hedge fund strategies exhibit a high volatility regime of the idiosyncratic risk, which could be attributed to contagion among hedge fund strategies. In our sample this event happened only during the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis of 1998. Other crises including the recent subprime mortgage crisis affected hedge funds only through systematic risk factors, and did not cause contagion among hedge funds.Hedge Fund, Risk Management, High frequency data

The Ordered Qualitative Model For Credit Rating Transitions

Information on the expected changes in credit quality of obligors is contained in credit migration matrices which trace out the movements of firms across ratings categories in a given period of time and in a given group of bond issuers. The rating matrices provided by Moody’s, Standard &Poor’s and Fitch became crucial inputs to many applications, including the assessment of risk on corporate credit portfolios (CreditVar) and credit derivatives pricing. We propose a factor probit model for modeling and prediction of credit rating matrices that are assumed to be stochastic and driven by a latent factor. The filtered latent factor path reveals the effect of the economic cycle on corporate credit ratings, and provides evidence in support of the PIT (point-in-time) rating philosophy. The factor probit model also yields the estimates of cross-sectional correlations in rating transitions that are documented empirically but not fully accounted for in the literature and in the regulatory rules established by the Basle Committee.Credit Rating, Migration, Migration Correlation, Credit Risk, Probit Model, Latent Factor, Business Cycle.