Catastrophe Models for Cognitive Workload and Fatigue

We reconceptualised several problems concerning the measurement of cognitive workload – fixed versus variable limits on channel capacity, work volume versus time pressure, adaptive strategies, resources demanded by tasks when performed simultaneously, and unclear distinctions between workload and fatigue effects – as two cusp catastrophe models: buckling stress resulting from acute workload, and fatigue resulting from extended engagement. Experimental participants completed a task that was intensive on non-verbal episodic memory and had an automatically speeded component. For buckling stress, the epoch of maximum (speeded) performance was the asymmetry parameter; however, anxiety did not contribute to bifurcation as expected. For fatigue, the bifurcation factor was the total work accomplished, and arithmetic, a compensatory ability, was the asymmetry parameter; R2 for the cusp models outperformed the linear comparison models in both cases. A research programme is outlined that revolves around the two models with different types of task and resource configurations

Child development and the aims of road safety education

Pedestrian accidents are one of the most prominent causes of premature injury, handicap and death in the modern world. In children, the problem is so severe that pedestrian accidents are widely regarded as the most serious of all health risks facing children in developed countries. Not surprisingly, educational measures have long been advocated as a means of teaching children how to cope with traffic and substantial resources have been devoted to their development and provision. Unfortunately, there seems to be a widespread view at the present time that education has not achieved as much as had been hoped and that there may even be quite strict limits to what can be achieved through education. This would, of course, shift the emphasis away from education altogether towards engineering or urban planning measures aimed at creating an intrinsically safer environment in which the need for education might be reduced or even eliminated. However, whilst engineering measures undoubtedly have a major role to play in the effort to reduce accidents, this outlook is both overly optimistic about the benefits of engineering and overly pessimistic about the limitations of education. At the same time, a fresh analysis is clearly required both of the aims and methods of contemporary road safety education. The present report is designed to provide such an analysis and to establish a framework within which further debate and research can take place

A critical look at power law modelling of the Internet

This paper takes a critical look at the usefulness of power law models of the Internet. The twin focuses of the paper are Internet traffic and topology generation. The aim of the paper is twofold. Firstly it summarises the state of the art in power law modelling particularly giving attention to existing open research questions. Secondly it provides insight into the failings of such models and where progress needs to be made for power law research to feed through to actual improvements in network performance.Comment: To appear Computer Communication

Evaluating the Long-run Impacts of the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks on US Domestic Airline Travel

Although the US airline industry began 2001 with 24 consecutive profitable quarters, including net profits in 2000 totaling $7.9 billion, the impact of the 9/11 event on the industry was substantial. Whereas the recession that began in early 2001 signaled the end of profitability, the 9/11 terrorist attacks pushed the industry into financial crisis after air travel dropped 20% over the September–December 2001 period compared to the same period in 2000. Given the decline in domestic air travel, an important question is whether the detrimental impact of the attacks was temporary or permanent. That is, did airline travel return to the trend that existed prior to the terrorist attacks? There are theoretical reasons to the believe that it would not. Economists have long viewed travel-mode choices as the outcome of a comparison of opportunity costs and benefits. Thus, anything that permanently raises the opportunity cost of travel, holding benefits constant, should reduce the level of travel volume. To determine whether air travel was permanently reduced, we use econometric and time-series forecasting models to generate a counter-factual forecast of air travel volume in the absence of the terrorist attacks. These dynamic forecasts are compared to actual air travel levels to determine the impact of the terrorist attacks. The findings suggest that domestic air travel did not return to the levels that would have existed in the absence of the attack

Applications of Repeated Games in Wireless Networks: A Survey

A repeated game is an effective tool to model interactions and conflicts for players aiming to achieve their objectives in a long-term basis. Contrary to static noncooperative games that model an interaction among players in only one period, in repeated games, interactions of players repeat for multiple periods; and thus the players become aware of other players' past behaviors and their future benefits, and will adapt their behavior accordingly. In wireless networks, conflicts among wireless nodes can lead to selfish behaviors, resulting in poor network performances and detrimental individual payoffs. In this paper, we survey the applications of repeated games in different wireless networks. The main goal is to demonstrate the use of repeated games to encourage wireless nodes to cooperate, thereby improving network performances and avoiding network disruption due to selfish behaviors. Furthermore, various problems in wireless networks and variations of repeated game models together with the corresponding solutions are discussed in this survey. Finally, we outline some open issues and future research directions.Comment: 32 pages, 15 figures, 5 tables, 168 reference