47,938 research outputs found
Towards Data-driven Simulation of End-to-end Network Performance Indicators
Novel vehicular communication methods are mostly analyzed simulatively or
analytically as real world performance tests are highly time-consuming and
cost-intense. Moreover, the high number of uncontrollable effects makes it
practically impossible to reevaluate different approaches under the exact same
conditions. However, as these methods massively simplify the effects of the
radio environment and various cross-layer interdependencies, the results of
end-to-end indicators (e.g., the resulting data rate) often differ
significantly from real world measurements. In this paper, we present a
data-driven approach that exploits a combination of multiple machine learning
methods for modeling the end-to-end behavior of network performance indicators
within vehicular networks. The proposed approach can be exploited for fast and
close to reality evaluation and optimization of new methods in a controllable
environment as it implicitly considers cross-layer dependencies between
measurable features. Within an example case study for opportunistic vehicular
data transfer, the proposed approach is validated against real world
measurements and a classical system-level network simulation setup. Although
the proposed method does only require a fraction of the computation time of the
latter, it achieves a significantly better match with the real world
evaluations
Planning as Optimization: Dynamically Discovering Optimal Configurations for Runtime Situations
The large number of possible configurations of modern software-based systems,
combined with the large number of possible environmental situations of such
systems, prohibits enumerating all adaptation options at design time and
necessitates planning at run time to dynamically identify an appropriate
configuration for a situation. While numerous planning techniques exist, they
typically assume a detailed state-based model of the system and that the
situations that warrant adaptations are known. Both of these assumptions can be
violated in complex, real-world systems. As a result, adaptation planning must
rely on simple models that capture what can be changed (input parameters) and
observed in the system and environment (output and context parameters). We
therefore propose planning as optimization: the use of optimization strategies
to discover optimal system configurations at runtime for each distinct
situation that is also dynamically identified at runtime. We apply our approach
to CrowdNav, an open-source traffic routing system with the characteristics of
a real-world system. We identify situations via clustering and conduct an
empirical study that compares Bayesian optimization and two types of
evolutionary optimization (NSGA-II and novelty search) in CrowdNav
Predicting the dissolution kinetics of silicate glasses using machine learning
Predicting the dissolution rates of silicate glasses in aqueous conditions is
a complex task as the underlying mechanism(s) remain poorly understood and the
dissolution kinetics can depend on a large number of intrinsic and extrinsic
factors. Here, we assess the potential of data-driven models based on machine
learning to predict the dissolution rates of various aluminosilicate glasses
exposed to a wide range of solution pH values, from acidic to caustic
conditions. Four classes of machine learning methods are investigated, namely,
linear regression, support vector machine regression, random forest, and
artificial neural network. We observe that, although linear methods all fail to
describe the dissolution kinetics, the artificial neural network approach
offers excellent predictions, thanks to its inherent ability to handle
non-linear data. Overall, we suggest that a more extensive use of machine
learning approaches could significantly accelerate the design of novel glasses
with tailored properties
Should Optimal Designers Worry About Consideration?
Consideration set formation using non-compensatory screening rules is a vital
component of real purchasing decisions with decades of experimental validation.
Marketers have recently developed statistical methods that can estimate
quantitative choice models that include consideration set formation via
non-compensatory screening rules. But is capturing consideration within models
of choice important for design? This paper reports on a simulation study of a
vehicle portfolio design when households screen over vehicle body style built
to explore the importance of capturing consideration rules for optimal
designers. We generate synthetic market share data, fit a variety of discrete
choice models to the data, and then optimize design decisions using the
estimated models. Model predictive power, design "error", and profitability
relative to ideal profits are compared as the amount of market data available
increases. We find that even when estimated compensatory models provide
relatively good predictive accuracy, they can lead to sub-optimal design
decisions when the population uses consideration behavior; convergence of
compensatory models to non-compensatory behavior is likely to require
unrealistic amounts of data; and modeling heterogeneity in non-compensatory
screening is more valuable than heterogeneity in compensatory trade-offs. This
supports the claim that designers should carefully identify consideration
behaviors before optimizing product portfolios. We also find that higher model
predictive power does not necessarily imply better design decisions; that is,
different model forms can provide "descriptive" rather than "predictive"
information that is useful for design.Comment: 5 figures, 26 pages. In Press at ASME Journal of Mechanical Design
(as of 3/17/15
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