Genetic algorithms for hyperparameter optimization in predictive business process monitoring

Predictive business process monitoring exploits event logs to predict how ongoing (uncompleted) traces will unfold up to their completion. A predictive process monitoring framework collects a range of techniques that allow users to get accurate predictions about the achievement of a goal for a given ongoing trace. These techniques can be combined and their parameters configured in different framework instances. Unfortunately, a unique framework instance that is general enough to outperform others for every dataset, goal or type of prediction is elusive. Thus, the selection and configuration of a framework instance needs to be done for a given dataset. This paper presents a predictive process monitoring framework armed with a hyperparameter optimization method to select a suitable framework instance for a given dataset

Big Data - Supply Chain Management Framework for Forecasting: Data Preprocessing and Machine Learning Techniques

This article intends to systematically identify and comparatively analyze state-of-the-art supply chain (SC) forecasting strategies and technologies. A novel framework has been proposed incorporating Big Data Analytics in SC Management (problem identification, data sources, exploratory data analysis, machine-learning model training, hyperparameter tuning, performance evaluation, and optimization), forecasting effects on human-workforce, inventory, and overall SC. Initially, the need to collect data according to SC strategy and how to collect them has been discussed. The article discusses the need for different types of forecasting according to the period or SC objective. The SC KPIs and the error-measurement systems have been recommended to optimize the top-performing model. The adverse effects of phantom inventory on forecasting and the dependence of managerial decisions on the SC KPIs for determining model performance parameters and improving operations management, transparency, and planning efficiency have been illustrated. The cyclic connection within the framework introduces preprocessing optimization based on the post-process KPIs, optimizing the overall control process (inventory management, workforce determination, cost, production and capacity planning). The contribution of this research lies in the standard SC process framework proposal, recommended forecasting data analysis, forecasting effects on SC performance, machine learning algorithms optimization followed, and in shedding light on future research

Cognitive finance: Behavioural strategies of spending, saving, and investing.

Research in economics is increasingly open to empirical results. The advances in behavioural approaches are expanded here by applying cognitive methods to financial questions. The field of "cognitive finance" is approached by the exploration of decision strategies in the financial settings of spending, saving, and investing. Individual strategies in these different domains are searched for and elaborated to derive explanations for observed irregularities in financial decision making. Strong context-dependency and adaptive learning form the basis for this cognition-based approach to finance. Experiments, ratings, and real world data analysis are carried out in specific financial settings, combining different research methods to improve the understanding of natural financial behaviour. People use various strategies in the domains of spending, saving, and investing. Specific spending profiles can be elaborated for a better understanding of individual spending differences. It was found that people differ along four dimensions of spending, which can be labelled: General Leisure, Regular Maintenance, Risk Orientation, and Future Orientation. Saving behaviour is strongly dependent on how people mentally structure their finance and on their self-control attitude towards decision space restrictions, environmental cues, and contingency structures. Investment strategies depend on how companies, in which investments are placed, are evaluated on factors such as Honesty, Prestige, Innovation, and Power. Further on, different information integration strategies can be learned in decision situations with direct feedback. The mapping of cognitive processes in financial decision making is discussed and adaptive learning mechanisms are proposed for the observed behavioural differences. The construal of a "financial personality" is proposed in accordance with other dimensions of personality measures, to better acknowledge and predict variations in financial behaviour. This perspective enriches economic theories and provides a useful ground for improving individual financial services

Case-based reasoning approach for decision-making in building retrofit: A review

The rapid development of computer science has brought inspirations to building retrofit. Artificial intelligence (AI) provides more possibilities in decision-making for building retrofit, could be regarded as an alternative strategy compared to the abundant research time spent in the early decision-making stage of traditional retrofit approaches. This paper reviews the application of the statistic algorithm and AI approach, including CBR, in building retrofit decision-making, and the essential process of CBR, such as workflow, similarity degree calculation method, weight factors correction manner, and input or output content using building design to provide a synthetic overview of CBR utilisation in the building retrofit realm. Among those different models, Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) is valuable in providing references and avoiding possible failures, which is a promising approach for building retrofit. Yet, current research mainly focused on its utilisation to solve specific issues. There is still a lack of systematically summarised research on Case-Based Reasoning solution. Therefore, this study analyses the methods used for CBR approach in the field of building retrofit decision-making process, aiming to find the characteristics of internal commonness. It concludes that CBR has two significant impact factors: similarity attribute type and similarity calculation manner, which determines the judgement process. The results show that the CBR solution has great application potential in further building retrofit design

Analysis of group evolution prediction in complex networks

In the world, in which acceptance and the identification with social communities are highly desired, the ability to predict evolution of groups over time appears to be a vital but very complex research problem. Therefore, we propose a new, adaptable, generic and mutli-stage method for Group Evolution Prediction (GEP) in complex networks, that facilitates reasoning about the future states of the recently discovered groups. The precise GEP modularity enabled us to carry out extensive and versatile empirical studies on many real-world complex / social networks to analyze the impact of numerous setups and parameters like time window type and size, group detection method, evolution chain length, prediction models, etc. Additionally, many new predictive features reflecting the group state at a given time have been identified and tested. Some other research problems like enriching learning evolution chains with external data have been analyzed as well

Case-based reasoning approach for decision-making in building retrofit: A review

The rapid development of computer science has brought inspirations to building retrofit. Artificial intelligence (AI) provides more possibilities in decision-making for building retrofit, could be regarded as an alternative strategy compared to the abundant research time spent in the early decision-making stage of traditional retrofit approaches. This paper reviews the application of the statistic algorithm and AI approach, including CBR, in building retrofit decision-making, and the essential process of CBR, such as workflow, similarity degree calculation method, weight factors correction manner, and input or output content using building design to provide a synthetic overview of CBR utilisation in the building retrofit realm. Among those different models, Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) is valuable in providing references and avoiding possible failures, which is a promising approach for building retrofit. Yet, current research mainly focused on its utilisation to solve specific issues. There is still a lack of systematically summarised research on Case-Based Reasoning solution. Therefore, this study analyses the methods used for CBR approach in the field of building retrofit decision-making process, aiming to find the characteristics of internal commonness. It concludes that CBR has two significant impact factors: similarity attribute type and similarity calculation manner, which determines the judgement process. The results show that the CBR solution has great application potential in further building retrofit design