3,321 research outputs found
Variational Inference in Nonconjugate Models
Mean-field variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior
inference in many probabilistic models. In a typical application, mean-field
methods approximately compute the posterior with a coordinate-ascent
optimization algorithm. When the model is conditionally conjugate, the
coordinate updates are easily derived and in closed form. However, many models
of interest---like the correlated topic model and Bayesian logistic
regression---are nonconjuate. In these models, mean-field methods cannot be
directly applied and practitioners have had to develop variational algorithms
on a case-by-case basis. In this paper, we develop two generic methods for
nonconjugate models, Laplace variational inference and delta method variational
inference. Our methods have several advantages: they allow for easily derived
variational algorithms with a wide class of nonconjugate models; they extend
and unify some of the existing algorithms that have been derived for specific
models; and they work well on real-world datasets. We studied our methods on
the correlated topic model, Bayesian logistic regression, and hierarchical
Bayesian logistic regression
Deep Exponential Families
We describe \textit{deep exponential families} (DEFs), a class of latent
variable models that are inspired by the hidden structures used in deep neural
networks. DEFs capture a hierarchy of dependencies between latent variables,
and are easily generalized to many settings through exponential families. We
perform inference using recent "black box" variational inference techniques. We
then evaluate various DEFs on text and combine multiple DEFs into a model for
pairwise recommendation data. In an extensive study, we show that going beyond
one layer improves predictions for DEFs. We demonstrate that DEFs find
interesting exploratory structure in large data sets, and give better
predictive performance than state-of-the-art models
Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference
Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits
it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However,
fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving
algorithms for new models can be both mathematically and computationally
challenging, which makes it difficult to efficiently cycle through the steps.
To this end, we develop automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI).
Using our method, the scientist only provides a probabilistic model and a
dataset, nothing else. ADVI automatically derives an efficient variational
inference algorithm, freeing the scientist to refine and explore many models.
ADVI supports a broad class of models-no conjugacy assumptions are required. We
study ADVI across ten different models and apply it to a dataset with millions
of observations. ADVI is integrated into Stan, a probabilistic programming
system; it is available for immediate use
Bethe Projections for Non-Local Inference
Many inference problems in structured prediction are naturally solved by
augmenting a tractable dependency structure with complex, non-local auxiliary
objectives. This includes the mean field family of variational inference
algorithms, soft- or hard-constrained inference using Lagrangian relaxation or
linear programming, collective graphical models, and forms of semi-supervised
learning such as posterior regularization. We present a method to
discriminatively learn broad families of inference objectives, capturing
powerful non-local statistics of the latent variables, while maintaining
tractable and provably fast inference using non-Euclidean projected gradient
descent with a distance-generating function given by the Bethe entropy. We
demonstrate the performance and flexibility of our method by (1) extracting
structured citations from research papers by learning soft global constraints,
(2) achieving state-of-the-art results on a widely-used handwriting recognition
task using a novel learned non-convex inference procedure, and (3) providing a
fast and highly scalable algorithm for the challenging problem of inference in
a collective graphical model applied to bird migration.Comment: minor bug fix to appendix. appeared in UAI 201
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