Modeling and analysis of air campaign resource allocation: a spatio-temporal decomposition approach

Abstract—In this paper, we address the modeling and analysis issues associated with a generic theater level campaign where two adversaries pit their military resources against each other over a sequence of multiple engagements. In particular, we consider the scenario of an air raid campaign where one adversary uses suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) aircraft and bombers (BMBs) against the other adversary’s invading ground troops (GTs) that are defended by their mobile air defense (AD) units. The original problem is decomposed into a temporal and a spatial resource allocation problem. The temporal resource allocation problem is formulated and solved in a game-theoretical framework as a multiple resource interaction problem with linear attrition functions. The spatial resource allocation problem is posed as a risk minimization problem in which the optimal corridor of ingress and optimal movement of the GTs and AD units are decided by the adversaries. These two solutions are integrated using an aggregation/deaggregation approach to evaluate resource strengths and distribute losses. Several simulation experiments were carried out to demonstrate the main ideas. Index Terms—Air campaign modeling, applied game theory, military campaigns, resource allocation, resource interaction models. I

Incentive Mechanisms for Participatory Sensing: Survey and Research Challenges

Participatory sensing is a powerful paradigm which takes advantage of smartphones to collect and analyze data beyond the scale of what was previously possible. Given that participatory sensing systems rely completely on the users' willingness to submit up-to-date and accurate information, it is paramount to effectively incentivize users' active and reliable participation. In this paper, we survey existing literature on incentive mechanisms for participatory sensing systems. In particular, we present a taxonomy of existing incentive mechanisms for participatory sensing systems, which are subsequently discussed in depth by comparing and contrasting different approaches. Finally, we discuss an agenda of open research challenges in incentivizing users in participatory sensing.Comment: Updated version, 4/25/201

Combat Air Forces Campaign Level Modernization Planning-A Study in Group Decision Making

Modernization is a critical component of the current transformation effort within the Department of Defense (DoD) Effective and efficient modernization planning will provide for the improved allocation of limited funding. The Air Force currently conducts capabilities based modernization planning to identify shortfalls. Air Combat Command (ACC) utilizes multi-objective decision analysis (MODA) techniques to support the modernization planning process (MPP). A MODA model has been created to identify and quantify capability shortfalls across a diverse range of mission areas. Groups of subject matter experts are utilized to provide model inputs improving the usefulness and credibility of the model. The intent of this research effort is to document the ACC modernization model and provide insight into their use of groups

Endogenous Environmental Policy when Pollution is Transboundary

We analyze the formation of environmental policy to regulate transboundary pollution if governments are self-interested. In a common agency framework, we portray the environmental policy calculus of two political supportmaximizing governments that are in a situation of strategic interaction with respect to their environmental policies, but too small to affect world market prices. We show how governments systematically deviate from socially optimal environmental policies. Taxes may be too high if environmental interests and pollution-intensity of production are very strong; under different constellations they may be too low. Governments may actually subsidize the production of a polluting good. Politically motivated environmental policy thus may be more harmful to the environment as compared to the benevolent dictators’ solution. In other cases it may enhance environmental quality and welfare beyond what a benevolent government would achieve.Political economy, environmental policy, transboundary pollution, common agency, strategic interaction

Endogenous Environmental Policy when Pollution is Transboundary

We analyze the formation of environmental policy to regulate transboundary pollution if governments are self-interested. In a common agency framework, we portray the environmental policy calculus of two political supportmaximizing governments that are in a situation of strategic interaction with respect to their environmental policies, but too small to affect world market prices. We show how governments systematically deviate from socially optimal environmental policies. Taxes may be too high if environmental interests and pollution-intensity of production are very strong; under different constellations they may be too low. Governments may actually subsidize the production of a polluting good. Politically motivated environmental policy thus may be more harmful to the environment as compared to the benevolent dictators’ solution. In other cases it may enhance environmental quality and welfare beyond what a benevolent government would achieve.Political economy, environmental policy, transboundary pollution, common agency, strategic interaction

A survey of simulation techniques in commerce and defence

Despite the developments in Modelling and Simulation (M&S) tools and techniques over the past years, there has been a gap in the M&S research and practice in healthcare on developing a toolkit to assist the modellers and simulation practitioners with selecting an appropriate set of techniques. This study is a preliminary step towards this goal. This paper presents some results from a systematic literature survey on applications of M&S in the commerce and defence domains that could inspire some improvements in the healthcare. Interim results show that in the commercial sector Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) has been the most widely used technique with System Dynamics (SD) in second place. However in the defence sector, SD has gained relatively more attention. SD has been found quite useful for qualitative and soft factors analysis. From both the surveys it becomes clear that there is a growing trend towards using hybrid M&S approaches

Considerations for Cross Domain / Mission Resource Allocation and Replanning

NPS NRP Technical ReportNaval platforms are inherently multi-mission - they execute a variety of missions simultaneously. Ships, submarines, and aircraft support multiple missions across domains, such as integrated air and missile defense, ballistic missile defense, anti-submarine warfare, strike operations, naval fires in support of ground operations, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Scheduling and position of these multi-mission platforms is problematic since one warfare area commander desires one position and schedule, while another may have a completely different approach. Commanders struggle to decide and adjudicate these conflicts, because there is plenty of uncertainty about the enemy and the environment. This project will explore emerging innovative data analytic technologies to optimize naval resource allocation and replanning across mission domains. NPS proposes a study that will evaluate the following three solution concepts for this application: (1) game theory, (2) machine learning, and (3) wargaming. The study will first identify a set of operational scenarios that involve distributed and diverse naval platforms and resources and a threat situation that requires multiple concurrent missions in multiple domains. The NPS team will use these scenarios to evaluate the three solution concepts and their applicability to supporting resource allocation and replanning. This project will provide valuable insights into innovative data analytic solution concepts to tackle the Navy's challenge of conducing multiple missions with cross-domain resources.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Essays on energy demand and renewable natural resource management

This thesis is a collection of five self-contained papers in the area of energy demand and renewable natural resource management. Paper 1 analyzes the dynamics in cooking fuel choices among Ghanaian households over the period 2005 and 2013 and further investigate the main forces driving households’ choice of cooking fuel. Evidence from this paper reveals a significant transition from fuelwood use towards LPG over the period. Results also reveal factors such as price, reliability in supply of LPG, income and other household attributes as significant factors influencing households’ choice of a given energy type for cooking. Paper 2 investigates the long and short run demand drivers of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Ghana and presents a 10-year forecast of future trends in demand. Results identify income, price and urbanization as the main drivers of demand. Projections from three scenarios suggest that demand for LPG will reach a minimum of 5.9 million metric tons by the year 2022. Paper 3 examines the causal dynamics among energy use, real GDP and CO₂ emissions in the presence of regime shifts in six emerging African economies. Results confirm the presence of regime shift effects in the long run inter-linkages among energy use, real GDP and CO₂ emissions in the countries considered. This suggests that structural shifts have both economic and environmental effects. Paper 4 develops a stage-structured bioeconomic model to analyze the effects of interspecies competition between roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and fallow deer (Dama dama) on net present value of harvesting, and the associated harvesting strategies. Our analysis shows that unilateral interspecies competition of the fallow deer on the roe deer reduces the marginal benefit of holding an additional individual of both species. Our numerical calculations suggest interspecies competition has a small impact on total net present value, compared to the impact on roe deer population density. Results are also sensitive to assumptions made about trophy prices and discount rate. Inclusion of trophy benefits implies reduced harvest of both young males and females. For the fallow deer, pulse harvesting is optimal, whereas this is not the case for roe deer. Paper 5 presents an analysis of the hunting lease market in Sweden. The determinants of hunting lease prices are analyzed using spatial and non-spatial hedonic price models. From the hedonic model, the associated hunting values are also derived. Results from the paper suggest the presence of spatial spillovers in lease prices. It also indicate factors such as proximity to urban centers, income, size of the hunting field, and congestion cost as key drivers of hunting lease prices. Further, the results indicate high hunting values for moose and fallow deer