Developing a framework on supply chain risk mapping, prioritization and engagement

Supply chain risk and uncertainty have been drawing much attention in the past few decades. In this thesis, a holistic risk management framework is developed to cope with such risks and uncertainty. The framework assists decision-makers first by detecting internal and/or external risks at early stages. In order to visualize the probability of risks and their impacts, risk-mapping techniques are then proposed. Risk assessment is used to determine risk occurrence and the effects in either quantitative or qualitative terms. Once risks are analyzed, risks relations should be investigated to further adopt risk management strategies for high importance items. Finally, ongoing control of existing and emerging risks requires an appropriate management strategy in order to increase supply chain efficiency. The framework is validated through an application in a small manufacturing company that struggles with outsourcing risk arising from both lead time and demand uncertainties. We first detect uncertainties, then design a simulation model to illustrate the impact of these uncertainties on the company’s performance, where we use the number of lost customers as the company’s performance indicator. Moreover, we conduct an experimental design to investigate risk relation and their impact on the number of lost customers. The experimental design also allows for comparing various supplier’s performance and indicates which supplier would be most beneficial to work with

A GAME THEORETIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL BETWEEN PROJECT RISK SET AND MEASURE SET

Project risk management, as a subjective and dynamic decision method of avoiding project risk, plays an important role in selecting appropriate control measures (i.e. measure set) to handle multiple emerging risks (i.e. risk set). This paper focuses on the multi-risk control problem under the condition of finite risk management resources. Based on the description of a Multi-HUB network and a collaboration mechanism within project risk management system, a multi-risk control system is formulated as a non-cooperative complete information game model between the project risk set and the measure set. In the proposed model, each risk within the risk set is described as a player in the game, who is competing with other players for the allocation of risk control resources that are available in limited quantities within a given measure set. Then an efficient algorithm is proposed to solve the allocation solution based on Nash equilibrium, and an experiment is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed game model. The proposed modeling and solution methods can be used to support decision-making in project risk management.Project management, risk control, risk management, Nash equilibrium, game theory