Methodologies in Predictive Visual Analytics

abstract: Predictive analytics embraces an extensive area of techniques from statistical modeling to machine learning to data mining and is applied in business intelligence, public health, disaster management and response, and many other fields. To date, visualization has been broadly used to support tasks in the predictive analytics pipeline under the underlying assumption that a human-in-the-loop can aid the analysis by integrating domain knowledge that might not be broadly captured by the system. Primary uses of visualization in the predictive analytics pipeline have focused on data cleaning, exploratory analysis, and diagnostics. More recently, numerous visual analytics systems for feature selection, incremental learning, and various prediction tasks have been proposed to support the growing use of complex models, agent-specific optimization, and comprehensive model comparison and result exploration. Such work is being driven by advances in interactive machine learning and the desire of end-users to understand and engage with the modeling process. However, despite the numerous and promising applications of visual analytics to predictive analytics tasks, work to assess the effectiveness of predictive visual analytics is lacking. This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Engineering 201

Methodologies in Predictive Visual Analytics

abstract: Predictive analytics embraces an extensive area of techniques from statistical modeling to machine learning to data mining and is applied in business intelligence, public health, disaster management and response, and many other fields. To date, visualization has been broadly used to support tasks in the predictive analytics pipeline under the underlying assumption that a human-in-the-loop can aid the analysis by integrating domain knowledge that might not be broadly captured by the system. Primary uses of visualization in the predictive analytics pipeline have focused on data cleaning, exploratory analysis, and diagnostics. More recently, numerous visual analytics systems for feature selection, incremental learning, and various prediction tasks have been proposed to support the growing use of complex models, agent-specific optimization, and comprehensive model comparison and result exploration. Such work is being driven by advances in interactive machine learning and the desire of end-users to understand and engage with the modeling process. However, despite the numerous and promising applications of visual analytics to predictive analytics tasks, work to assess the effectiveness of predictive visual analytics is lacking. This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Engineering 201

Structuring visual exploratory analysis of skill demand

The analysis of increasingly large and diverse data for meaningful interpretation and question answering is handicapped by human cognitive limitations. Consequently, semi-automatic abstraction of complex data within structured information spaces becomes increasingly important, if its knowledge content is to support intuitive, exploratory discovery. Exploration of skill demand is an area where regularly updated, multi-dimensional data may be exploited to assess capability within the workforce to manage the demands of the modern, technology- and data-driven economy. The knowledge derived may be employed by skilled practitioners in defining career pathways, to identify where, when and how to update their skillsets in line with advancing technology and changing work demands. This same knowledge may also be used to identify the combination of skills essential in recruiting for new roles. To address the challenges inherent in exploring the complex, heterogeneous, dynamic data that feeds into such applications, we investigate the use of an ontology to guide structuring of the information space, to allow individuals and institutions to interactively explore and interpret the dynamic skill demand landscape for their specific needs. As a test case we consider the relatively new and highly dynamic field of Data Science, where insightful, exploratory data analysis and knowledge discovery are critical. We employ context-driven and task-centred scenarios to explore our research questions and guide iterative design, development and formative evaluation of our ontology-driven, visual exploratory discovery and analysis approach, to measure where it adds value to users’ analytical activity. Our findings reinforce the potential in our approach, and point us to future paths to build on

Dialogue as Data in Learning Analytics for Productive Educational Dialogue

This paper provides a novel, conceptually driven stance on the state of the contemporary analytic challenges faced in the treatment of dialogue as a form of data across on- and offline sites of learning. In prior research, preliminary steps have been taken to detect occurrences of such dialogue using automated analysis techniques. Such advances have the potential to foster effective dialogue using learning analytic techniques that scaffold, give feedback on, and provide pedagogic contexts promoting such dialogue. However, the translation of much prior learning science research to online contexts is complex, requiring the operationalization of constructs theorized in different contexts (often face-to-face), and based on different datasets and structures (often spoken dialogue). In this paper, we explore what could constitute the effective analysis of productive online dialogues, arguing that it requires consideration of three key facets of the dialogue: features indicative of productive dialogue; the unit of segmentation; and the interplay of features and segmentation with the temporal underpinning of learning contexts. The paper thus foregrounds key considerations regarding the analysis of dialogue data in emerging learning analytics environments, both for learning-science and for computationally oriented researchers

A multi-modal study into students’ timing and learning regulation: time is ticking

Purpose This empirical study aims to demonstrate how the combination of trace data derived from technology-enhanced learning environments and self-response survey data can contribute to the investigation of self-regulated learning processes. Design/methodology/approach Using a showcase based on 1,027 students’ learning in a blended introductory quantitative course, the authors analysed the learning regulation and especially the timing of learning by trace data. Next, the authors connected these learning patterns with self-reports based on multiple contemporary social-cognitive theories. Findings The authors found that several behavioural facets of maladaptive learning orientations, such as lack of regulation, self-sabotage or disengagement negatively impacted the amount of practising, as well as timely practising. On the adaptive side of learning dispositions, the picture was less clear. Where some adaptive dispositions, such as the willingness to invest efforts in learning and self-perceived planning skills, positively impacted learning regulation and timing of learning, other dispositions such as valuing school or academic buoyancy lacked the expected positive effects. Research limitations/implications Due to the blended design, there is a strong asymmetry between what one can observe on learning in both modes. Practical implications This study demonstrates that in a blended setup, one needs to distinguish the grand effect on learning from the partial effect on learning in the digital mode: the most adaptive students might be less dependent for their learning on the use of the digital learning mode. Originality/value The paper presents an application of embodied motivation in the context of blended learning