Bayesian Inference in Estimation of Distribution Algorithms

Metaheuristics such as Estimation of Distribution Algorithms and the Cross-Entropy method use probabilistic modelling and inference to generate candidate solutions in optimization problems. The model fitting task in this class of algorithms has largely been carried out to date based on maximum likelihood. An alternative approach that is prevalent in statistics and machine learning is to use Bayesian inference. In this paper, we provide a framework for the application of Bayesian inference techniques in probabilistic model-based optimization. Based on this framework, a simple continuous Bayesian Estimation of Distribution Algorithm is described. We evaluate and compare this algorithm experimentally with its maximum likelihood equivalent, UMDAG c

A Maximum Entropy Procedure to Solve Likelihood Equations

In this article, we provide initial findings regarding the problem of solving likelihood equations by means of a maximum entropy (ME) approach. Unlike standard procedures that require equating the score function of the maximum likelihood problem at zero, we propose an alternative strategy where the score is instead used as an external informative constraint to the maximization of the convex Shannon\u2019s entropy function. The problem involves the reparameterization of the score parameters as expected values of discrete probability distributions where probabilities need to be estimated. This leads to a simpler situation where parameters are searched in smaller (hyper) simplex space. We assessed our proposal by means of empirical case studies and a simulation study, the latter involving the most critical case of logistic regression under data separation. The results suggested that the maximum entropy reformulation of the score problem solves the likelihood equation problem. Similarly, when maximum likelihood estimation is difficult, as is the case of logistic regression under separation, the maximum entropy proposal achieved results (numerically) comparable to those obtained by the Firth\u2019s bias-corrected approach. Overall, these first findings reveal that a maximum entropy solution can be considered as an alternative technique to solve the likelihood equation

Recovery from Linear Measurements with Complexity-Matching Universal Signal Estimation

We study the compressed sensing (CS) signal estimation problem where an input signal is measured via a linear matrix multiplication under additive noise. While this setup usually assumes sparsity or compressibility in the input signal during recovery, the signal structure that can be leveraged is often not known a priori. In this paper, we consider universal CS recovery, where the statistics of a stationary ergodic signal source are estimated simultaneously with the signal itself. Inspired by Kolmogorov complexity and minimum description length, we focus on a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation framework that leverages universal priors to match the complexity of the source. Our framework can also be applied to general linear inverse problems where more measurements than in CS might be needed. We provide theoretical results that support the algorithmic feasibility of universal MAP estimation using a Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation, which is computationally challenging. We incorporate some techniques to accelerate the algorithm while providing comparable and in many cases better reconstruction quality than existing algorithms. Experimental results show the promise of universality in CS, particularly for low-complexity sources that do not exhibit standard sparsity or compressibility.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figure

A view of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms through the lens of Expectation-Maximization

We show that a large class of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms, including, but not limited to, Covariance Matrix Adaption, can be written as a Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and as exact EM in the limit of infinite samples. Because EM sits on a rigorous statistical foundation and has been thoroughly analyzed, this connection provides a new coherent framework with which to reason about EDAs