AGENT AUTONOMY APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC PHYSICS-OF-FAILURE MODELING OF COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEMS WITH INTERACTING FAILURE MECHANISMS

A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007

Learning Multi-Modal Self-Awareness Models Empowered by Active Inference for Autonomous Vehicles

For autonomous agents to coexist with the real world, it is essential to anticipate the dynamics and interactions in their surroundings. Autonomous agents can use models of the human brain to learn about responding to the actions of other participants in the environment and proactively coordinates with the dynamics. Modeling brain learning procedures is challenging for multiple reasons, such as stochasticity, multi-modality, and unobservant intents. A neglected problem has long been understanding and processing environmental perception data from the multisensorial information referring to the cognitive psychology level of the human brain process. The key to solving this problem is to construct a computing model with selective attention and self-learning ability for autonomous driving, which is supposed to possess the mechanism of memorizing, inferring, and experiential updating, enabling it to cope with the changes in an external world. Therefore, a practical self-driving approach should be open to more than just the traditional computing structure of perception, planning, decision-making, and control. It is necessary to explore a probabilistic framework that goes along with human brain attention, reasoning, learning, and decisionmaking mechanism concerning interactive behavior and build an intelligent system inspired by biological intelligence. This thesis presents a multi-modal self-awareness module for autonomous driving systems. The techniques proposed in this research are evaluated on their ability to model proper driving behavior in dynamic environments, which is vital in autonomous driving for both action planning and safe navigation. First, this thesis adapts generative incremental learning to the problem of imitation learning. It extends the imitation learning framework to work in the multi-agent setting where observations gathered from multiple agents are used to inform the training process of a learning agent, which tracks a dynamic target. Since driving has associated rules, the second part of this thesis introduces a method to provide optimal knowledge to the imitation learning agent through an active inference approach. Active inference is the selective information method gathering during prediction to increase a predictive machine learning model’s prediction performance. Finally, to address the inference complexity and solve the exploration-exploitation dilemma in unobserved environments, an exploring action-oriented model is introduced by pulling together imitation learning and active inference methods inspired by the brain learning procedure

An agent-based fuzzy cognitive map approach to the strategic marketing planning for industrial firms

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Industrial Marketing Management. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Industrial marketing planning is a typical example of an unstructured decision making problem due to the large number of variables to consider and the uncertainty imposed on those variables. Although abundant studies identified barriers and facilitators of effective industrial marketing planning in practice, the literature still lacks practical tools and methods that marketing managers can use for the task. This paper applies fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to industrial marketing planning. In particular, agent based inference method is proposed to overcome dynamic relationships, time lags, and reusability issues of FCM evaluation. MACOM simulator also is developed to help marketing managers conduct what-if scenarios to see the impacts of possible changes on the variables defined in an FCM that represents industrial marketing planning problem. The simulator is applied to an industrial marketing planning problem for a global software service company in South Korea. This study has practical implication as it supports marketing managers for industrial marketing planning that has large number of variables and their cause–effect relationships. It also contributes to FCM theory by providing an agent based method for the inference of FCM. Finally, MACOM also provides academics in the industrial marketing management discipline with a tool for developing and pre-verifying a conceptual model based on qualitative knowledge of marketing practitioners.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

Automated post-fault diagnosis of power system disturbances

In order to automate the analysis of SCADA and digital fault recorder (DFR) data for a transmission network operator in the UK, the authors have developed an industrial strength multi-agent system entitled protection engineering diagnostic agents (PEDA). The PEDA system integrates a number of legacy intelligent systems for analyzing power system data as autonomous intelligent agents. The integration achieved through multi-agent systems technology enhances the diagnostic support offered to engineers by focusing the analysis on the most pertinent DFR data based on the results of the analysis of SCADA. Since November 2004 the PEDA system has been operating online at a UK utility. In this paper the authors focus on the underlying intelligent system techniques, i.e. rule-based expert systems, model-based reasoning and state-of-the-art multi-agent system technology, that PEDA employs and the lessons learnt through its deployment and online use

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page