International price discrimination in the European car market: An econometric model of oligopoly behavior with product differentiation

Car Industry;Oligopoly;Product Differentiation;Econometric Models;Price Discrimination

Spatial Competition in Private Labels

Previous studies find that private labels increase retailers' bargaining power with manufacturers and allow retailers to price discriminate. We use a spatial discrete choice model to show that retailers also use store brands to create market power through store differentiation, but not as a means of building market share.Marketing,

The flexible coefficient multinomial logit (FC-MNL) model of demand for differentiated products

We show FC-MNL is flexible in the sense of Diewert (1974), thus its parameters can be chosen to match a well-defined class of possible own- and cross-price elasticities of demand. In contrast to models such as Probit and Random Coefficient-MNL models, FC-MNL does not require estimation via simulation; it is fully analytic. Under well-defined and testable parameter restrictions, FC-MNL is shown to be an unexplored member of McFadden’s class of Multivariate Extreme Value discrete-choice models. Therefore, FC-MNL is fully consistent with an underlying structural model of heterogeneous, utility-maximizing consumers. We provide a Monte-Carlo study to establish its properties and we illustrate the use by estimating the demand for new automobiles in Italy

Market Power in the Carbonated Soft Drink Industry

We investigate the strategic pricing for leading brands sold in the carbonated soft drink (CSD) market in the context of a flexible demand specification (i.e. random parameter nested logit) and a structural pricing equation. Our approach does not rely upon the often used ad hoc linear approximations to demand and profit-maximizing first-order conditions. We estimate the structural pricing equation using four different estimators (i.e. OLS, LIML, 2SLS, and GMM) and compare the implied deviation from Bertrand-Nash competition. Our results suggest that retailers, on average, price CSD brands below their cost, likely a result of the competitive retailing environment. We also find CSD wholesalers price their brands significantly more cooperatively than Bertrand-Nash would suggest, thus inflating profits.Market Power, Carbonated Soft Drinks, Econometrics, LIML, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization,

Tax Policy and CO2 Emissions – An Econometric Analysis of the German Automobile Market

In addition to efficiency standards and consumer information, car-related taxes constitute one of three pillars of the European Commission’s strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars.A longstanding question concerns the effectiveness of such taxes in determining the car-purchasing behavior of households. Several recent studies suggest that purchases are primarily determined by retail costs rather than by taxes, the latter of which are typically incurred over the lifetime of the car. Using panel data on new-car registrations in Germany, Europe’s largest car market, the present paper addresses this issue with an econometric analysis of the impact of fuel costs and circulation taxes on car market shares. By employing a nested logit model that explicitly recognizes the segmented structure of the car market, the analysis takes account of correlation in unobserved shocks among cars belonging to the same market segment. Moreover, given the panel structure of the data, a fixed effects estimator is employed to control for the influence of unobservable, timeinvariant automobile attributes that could otherwise induce biases in the estimated coefficients. Contrasting with much of the evidence garnered to date, the results suggest that circulation taxes and fuel costs significantly determine car market shares, and hence may serve as effective instruments in influencing the composition of the car fleet and associated CO2 emissions.Fuel tax, circulation tax, car market, Germany, panel data, nested logit model

Should Optimal Designers Worry About Consideration?

Consideration set formation using non-compensatory screening rules is a vital component of real purchasing decisions with decades of experimental validation. Marketers have recently developed statistical methods that can estimate quantitative choice models that include consideration set formation via non-compensatory screening rules. But is capturing consideration within models of choice important for design? This paper reports on a simulation study of a vehicle portfolio design when households screen over vehicle body style built to explore the importance of capturing consideration rules for optimal designers. We generate synthetic market share data, fit a variety of discrete choice models to the data, and then optimize design decisions using the estimated models. Model predictive power, design "error", and profitability relative to ideal profits are compared as the amount of market data available increases. We find that even when estimated compensatory models provide relatively good predictive accuracy, they can lead to sub-optimal design decisions when the population uses consideration behavior; convergence of compensatory models to non-compensatory behavior is likely to require unrealistic amounts of data; and modeling heterogeneity in non-compensatory screening is more valuable than heterogeneity in compensatory trade-offs. This supports the claim that designers should carefully identify consideration behaviors before optimizing product portfolios. We also find that higher model predictive power does not necessarily imply better design decisions; that is, different model forms can provide "descriptive" rather than "predictive" information that is useful for design.Comment: 5 figures, 26 pages. In Press at ASME Journal of Mechanical Design (as of 3/17/15

Coverage of Retail Stores and Discrete Choice Models of Demand: Estimating Price Elasticities and Welfare Effects

Consumers’ choice set of products within stores can be limited. Ackerberg and Rysman (2005) address this problem by modeling unobserved consumer preferences over products and retail stores, leading to augmented demand specifications. Having Carbonated Soft Drink product level data, where we observe products’ store coverage, we are able to estimate their logit, nested logit and random coefficient logit specifications of demand in a structural model of equilibrium. Allowing for store coverage turns out to have a very significant impact on the estimated structural parameters and on the predictive power of the model. Taking these estimated structural parameters we perform a counterfactual whereby stores carry all products in the market. We find systematic increases in price elasticities and welfare in our new equilibrium. Competition in markets is more curtailed than normally assumed in structural models of industries.Carbonated Soft Drinks, differentiated products, discrete choice, store coverage, structural model, price elasticities, welfare

INVESTIGATING PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY IN A REPEATED DISCRETE-CHOICE RECREATION DEMAND MODEL OF ATLANTIC SALMON FISHING

Estimating a demand system under the assumption that preferences are homogeneous may lead to biased estimates of parameters for any specific individual and significantly different expected consumer surplus estimates. This paper investigates several different parametric methods to incorporate heterogeneity in the context of a repeated discrete-choice model. The first is the classic method of assuming utility to be a function of individual characteristics. Second, a random parameters method is proposed, where preference parameters have some known distribution. Random parameters logit causes the random components to be correlated across choice occasions and, in a sense, eliminates IIA. Simulation noise is discussed. Finally, methods are proposed to relax the assumption that the unobserved stochastic component of utility is identically distributed across individuals. For example, randomization of the logit scale, which is a new method, allows noise levels to vary across individuals without the added burden of explaining the source using covariates. The application is to Atlantic salmon fishing, and expected compensating variations and changes in trip patterns are compared across the models for three policy-relevant changes in fishing conditions at the Penobscot River, the best salmon fishing site in Maine.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Market Segmentation and the Sources of Rents from Innovation: Personal Computers in the Late 1980's

This paper evaluates the sources of transitory market power in the market for personal computers (PCs) during the late 1980's. Our analysis is motivated by the coexistence of low entry barriers into the PC industry and high rates of innovative investment by a small number of PC manufacturers. We attempt to understand these phenomena by measuring the role that different principles of product differentiation (PDs) played in segmenting this dynamic market. Our first PD measures the substitutability between Frontier (386-based) and Non- Frontier products, while the second PD measures the advantage of a brand-name reputation (e.g., by IBM). Building on advances in the measurement of product differentiation, we measure the separate roles that these PDs played in contributing to transitory market power. In so doing, this paper attempts to account for the market origins of innovative rents in the PC industry. Our principal finding is that, during the late 1980's, the PC market was highly segmented along both the Branded (B versus NB) and Frontier (F versusNF) dimensions. The effects of competitive events in any one cluster were confined mostly to that particular cluster, with little effect on other clusters. For example, less than 5% of the market share achieved by a hypothetical entrant would be market-stealing from other clusters. In addition, the product diffe- rentiation advantages of B and F were qualitatively different. The main advantage of F was limited to the isolation from NF competitors it provided; Brandedness both shifted out the product demand curve as well as segmenting B products from NB competition. These results help explain how transitory market power (arising from market segmentation) shaped the underlying incen- tives for innovation in the PC industry during the mid to late 1980s.