"Macroeconomics Meets Hyman P. Minsky: The Financial Theory of Investment"

Expanding on an approach developed by financial economist Hyman Minsky, the authors of this new working paper present an alternative to the standard "efficient markets hypothesis"--the relevance of which Minsky vehemently denied. Minsky recognized that, in a modern capitalist economy with complex, expensive, and long-lived assets, the method used to finance asset positions is of critical importance, both for theory and for real-world outcomes—one reason his alternate approach has been embraced by Post Keynesian economists and Wall Street practitioners alike. Coauthors L. Randall Wray and Eric Tymoigne argue that the current financial crisis, which began with the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market in 2007, provides a compelling reason to show how Minsky's approach offers us a solid grounding in the workings of financial capitalism. They examine Minsky's extension to Keynes's investment theory of the business cycle, which allowed Minsky to analyze the evolution, over time, of the modern capitalist economy toward fragility--what is well known as his financial instability hypothesis. They then update Minsky's approach to finance with a more detailed examination of asset pricing and the evolution of the banking sector, and conclude with a brief review of the insights that such an approach can provide for analysis of the current global financial crisis.

Is there a role for funding in explaining recent US bank failures?

This paper tests the role of different banks’ liquidity funding structures in explaining the bank failures that occurred in the United States between 2007 and 2009. The results highlight that funding is indeed a significant factor in explaining banks’ probability of default. By confirming the role of funding as a driver of banking crisis, the paper also recognizes that the new liquidity framework proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision appears to have the features needed to strengthen banks’ liquidity conditions and improve financial stability. Its correct implementation, together with closer supervision of banks’ liquidity and funding conditions, appear decisive, however, if such improvements are to be achieved.banks, default, crises, liquidity, funding, brokered deposits, liquidity regulation, deposit insurance, United States

Intent to Contract

There is a remarkable difference between black-letter contract laws of the United States and England. In England, the existence of a contract is supposedly conditioned on the parties\u27 intent to be legally bound, while section 21 of the Second Restatement of Contracts states that [n]either real nor apparent intention that a promise be legally binding is essential to the formation of a contract. There are also differences within U.S. law on the issue. While section 21 describes courts\u27 approach to most contracts, the parties\u27 intent to contact can be a condition of validity of preliminary agreements, domestic agreements and social arrangements, reporters’ promises of confidentiality to sources, and gratuitous promises. This Article develops an analytic framework for evaluating these rules and examines their relationship to the broader principles that animate contract law. Rules that condition contractual liability on proof of contractual intent must include rules for interpreting that intent. Those interpretive rules will include both interpretive defaults and rules for what it takes to opt-out of the default. By adjusting these default and opt-out rules, the law can achieve different balances between the duty-imposing and power-conferring functions of contract law, or among the various reasons for enforcement. This is demonstrated by an analysis of the rules for gratuitous promises, preliminary agreements, spousal agreements and reporters\u27 confidentiality promises. The results of that analysis include a new argument for the Model Written Obligations Act; a critique of Alan Schwartz and Robert Scott\u27s proposal preliminary agreements and a recommended alternative to it; and recommended changes to the rules for agreements between spouses. Attention to intent to contract requirements also indicates an overlooked aspect of how the enforcement of contracts affects extralegal norms and relationships of trust. Interpretive rules that require parties who want, or who do not want, legal liability expressly to say so are particularly likely to interfere with or erode extralegal forms trust that otherwise create value in transactions

Political Risk and Sovereign Debt Contracts

Default on sovereign debt is a form of political risk. Issuers and creditors have responded to this risk both by strengthening the terms in sovereign debt contracts that enable creditors to enforce their debts judicially and by creating terms that enable sovereigns to restructure their debts. These apparently contradictory approaches reflect attempts to solve an incomplete contracting problem in which debtors need to be forced to repay debts in good states of the world; debtors need to be granted partial relief from debt payments in bad states; debtors may attempt to exploit divisions among creditors in order to opportunistically reduce their debt burden; and debtors and creditors may attempt to externalize costs on the taxpayers of other countries. We support this argument with an empirical overview of the development of sovereign bond terms from 1960 to the present

State and Local Government Debt: An Analysis

[Excerpt] This report first provides a broad overview of state and local government finances and how these governments incorporate borrowing into their budgets. The second section reports data on state and local government debt and how that debt has changed over time. This section includes a comparative analysis of these debt parameters for each state. The third section discusses different economic perspectives on the use of debt by governments and if governments are intrinsically biased toward borrowing more than is considered economically optimal. The discussion provides background for Congress as it deliberates potential changes in the oversight of the primary and secondary markets for state and local government debt. Issues related to state and local government finances, such as government pensions and health benefits, are also addressed. This report will be updated as legislative events warrant

The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations

The aims of this paper are twofold: first, we attempt to express the threshold of a single “A” rating as issued by major international rating agencies in terms of annualised probabilities of default. We use data from Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s publicly available rating histories to construct confidence intervals for the level of probability of default to be associated with the single “A” rating. The focus on the single A rating level is not accidental, as this is the credit quality level at which the Eurosystem considers financial assets to be eligible collateral for its monetary policy operations. The second aim is to review various existing validation models for the probability of default which enable the analyst to check the ability of credit assessment systems to forecast future default events. Within this context the paper proposes a simple mechanism for the comparison of the performance of major rating agencies and that of other credit assessment systems, such as the internal ratings-based systems of commercial banks under the Basel II regime. This is done to provide a simple validation yardstick to help in the monitoring of the performance of the different credit assessment systems participating in the assessment of eligible collateral underlying Eurosystem monetary policy operations. Contrary to the widely used confidence interval approach, our proposal, based on an interpretation of p-values as frequencies, guarantees a convergence to an ex ante fixed probability of default (PD) value. Given the general characteristics of the problem considered, we consider this simple mechanism to also be applicable in other contexts.credit risk, rating, probability of default (PD), performance checking, backtesting

THE MALLEABILITY OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOR - EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES OF PRESENTATION FORMATS ON CONSUMER CHOICE AND PERCEPTION

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations

The aims of this paper are twofold: first, we attempt to express the threshold of a single “A” rating as issued by major international rating agencies in terms of annualised probabilities of default. We use data from Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s publicly available rating histories to construct confidence intervals for the level of probability of default to be associated with the single “A” rating. The focus on the single “A” rating level is not accidental, as this is the credit quality level at which the Eurosystem considers financial assets to be eligible collateral for its monetary policy operations. The second aim is to review various existing validation models for the probability of default which enable the analyst to check the ability of credit assessment systems to forecast future default events. Within this context the paper proposes a simple mechanism for the comparison of the performance of major rating agencies and that of other credit assessment systems, such as the internal ratings-based systems of commercial banks under the Basel II regime. This is done to provide a simple validation yardstick to help in the monitoring of the performance of the different credit assessment systems participating in the assessment of eligible collateral underlying Eurosystem monetary policy operations. Contrary to the widely used confidence interval approach, our proposal, based on an interpretation of p-values as frequencies, guarantees a convergence to an ex ante fixed probability of default (PD) value. Given the general characteristics of the problem considered, we consider this simple mechanism to also be applicable in other contexts.

How do Securities Laws Influence Affect, Happiness, & Trust?

This Article advocates that securities regulators promulgate rules based upon taking into consideration their impacts upon investors\u27 and others\u27 affect, happiness, and trust. Examples of these impacts are consumer optimism, financial stress, anxiety over how thoroughly securities regulators deliberate over proposed rules, investor confidence in securities disclosures, market exuberance, social moods, and subjective well-being. These variables affect and are affected by traditional financial variables, such as consumer debt, expenditures, and wealth; corporate investment; initial public offerings; and securities market demand, liquidity, prices, supply, and volume. This Article proposes that securities regulators can and should evaluate rules based upon measures of affect, happiness, and trust in addition to standard observable financial variables. This Article concludes that the organic statutes of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission are indeterminate despite mandating that federal securities laws consider efficiency among other goals. This Article illustrates analysis of affective impacts of these financial regulatory policies: mandatory securities disclosures; gun-jumping rules for publicly registered offerings; financial education or literacy campaigns; statutory or judicial default rules and menus; and continual reassessment and revision of rules. These regulatory policies impact and are impacted by investors\u27 and other people\u27s affect, happiness, and trust. Thus, securities regulators can and should evaluate such affective impacts to design effective legal policy

Opportunity cost and prudentiality : an analysis of futures clearinghouse behavior

Margin deposits, which serve as collateral to protect the clearinghouse, are typically the most important tool for risk management. The authors develop a model that explains how creating a futures clearinghouse may allow traders simultaneously to reduce both the risk of default and the total amount of margin that members post. Optimal margin levels are determined by the need to balance the deadweight costs of default against the opportunity cost of holding additional margin. Both costs are a consequence of market participants'imperfect access to capital markets. The simultaneous reduction in default risk and in the opportunity cost of margin deposits is possible because the creation of the clearinghouse facilitates multilateral netting. The authors characterize the conditions under which multilateral netting will dominate bilateral netting. They also show that it is credible for the clearinghouse to expel members who default, further reducing the risk of default. Finally, they show that it may (but need not) be optimal for the clearinghouse to monitor the financial condition of its members. If monitoring occurs, it will reduce the amount of margin required, but need not affect the probability of default. The empirical tests run by the authors indicate that the opportunity cost of margin plays an important role in determining margin. The relationship between volatility and margins indicates that participants face an upward-sloping opportunity cost for margin, which appears to more than offset the effects that monitoring and expulsion would be expected to have on margin setting.Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Insurance&Risk Mitigation