A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Modeling Motion Patterns

The most difficult—and often most essential— aspect of many interception and tracking tasks is constructing motion models of the targets to be found. Experts can often provide only partial information, and fitting parameters for complex motion patterns can require large amounts of training data. Specifying how to parameterize complex motion patterns is in itself a difficult task. In contrast, nonparametric models are very flexible and generalize well with relatively little training data. We propose modeling target motion patterns as a mixture of Gaussian processes (GP) with a Dirichlet process (DP) prior over mixture weights. The GP provides a flexible representation for each individual motion pattern, while the DP assigns observed trajectories to particular motion patterns. Both automatically adjust the complexity of the motion model based on the available data. Our approach outperforms several parametric models on a helicopter-based car-tracking task on data collected from the greater Boston area

Learning the dynamics of articulated tracked vehicles

In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV

Recovering from External Disturbances in Online Manipulation through State-Dependent Revertive Recovery Policies

Robots are increasingly entering uncertain and unstructured environments. Within these, robots are bound to face unexpected external disturbances like accidental human or tool collisions. Robots must develop the capacity to respond to unexpected events. That is not only identifying the sudden anomaly, but also deciding how to handle it. In this work, we contribute a recovery policy that allows a robot to recovery from various anomalous scenarios across different tasks and conditions in a consistent and robust fashion. The system organizes tasks as a sequence of nodes composed of internal modules such as motion generation and introspection. When an introspection module flags an anomaly, the recovery strategy is triggered and reverts the task execution by selecting a target node as a function of a state dependency chart. The new skill allows the robot to overcome the effects of the external disturbance and conclude the task. Our system recovers from accidental human and tool collisions in a number of tasks. Of particular importance is the fact that we test the robustness of the recovery system by triggering anomalies at each node in the task graph showing robust recovery everywhere in the task. We also trigger multiple and repeated anomalies at each of the nodes of the task showing that the recovery system can consistently recover anywhere in the presence of strong and pervasive anomalous conditions. Robust recovery systems will be key enablers for long-term autonomy in robot systems. Supplemental info including code, data, graphs, and result analysis can be found at [1].Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl

Real-Time Predictive Modeling and Robust Avoidance of Pedestrians with Uncertain, Changing Intentions

To plan safe trajectories in urban environments, autonomous vehicles must be able to quickly assess the future intentions of dynamic agents. Pedestrians are particularly challenging to model, as their motion patterns are often uncertain and/or unknown a priori. This paper presents a novel changepoint detection and clustering algorithm that, when coupled with offline unsupervised learning of a Gaussian process mixture model (DPGP), enables quick detection of changes in intent and online learning of motion patterns not seen in prior training data. The resulting long-term movement predictions demonstrate improved accuracy relative to offline learning alone, in terms of both intent and trajectory prediction. By embedding these predictions within a chance-constrained motion planner, trajectories which are probabilistically safe to pedestrian motions can be identified in real-time. Hardware experiments demonstrate that this approach can accurately predict pedestrian motion patterns from onboard sensor/perception data and facilitate robust navigation within a dynamic environment.Comment: Submitted to 2014 International Workshop on the Algorithmic Foundations of Robotic

Robot Introspection with Bayesian Nonparametric Vector Autoregressive Hidden Markov Models

Robot introspection, as opposed to anomaly detection typical in process monitoring, helps a robot understand what it is doing at all times. A robot should be able to identify its actions not only when failure or novelty occurs, but also as it executes any number of sub-tasks. As robots continue their quest of functioning in unstructured environments, it is imperative they understand what is it that they are actually doing to render them more robust. This work investigates the modeling ability of Bayesian nonparametric techniques on Markov Switching Process to learn complex dynamics typical in robot contact tasks. We study whether the Markov switching process, together with Bayesian priors can outperform the modeling ability of its counterparts: an HMM with Bayesian priors and without. The work was tested in a snap assembly task characterized by high elastic forces. The task consists of an insertion subtask with very complex dynamics. Our approach showed a stronger ability to generalize and was able to better model the subtask with complex dynamics in a computationally efficient way. The modeling technique is also used to learn a growing library of robot skills, one that when integrated with low-level control allows for robot online decision making.Comment: final version submitted to humanoids 201

Nonparametric Modeling of Dynamic Functional Connectivity in fMRI Data

Dynamic functional connectivity (FC) has in recent years become a topic of interest in the neuroimaging community. Several models and methods exist for both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and electroencephalography (EEG), and the results point towards the conclusion that FC exhibits dynamic changes. The existing approaches modeling dynamic connectivity have primarily been based on time-windowing the data and k-means clustering. We propose a non-parametric generative model for dynamic FC in fMRI that does not rely on specifying window lengths and number of dynamic states. Rooted in Bayesian statistical modeling we use the predictive likelihood to investigate if the model can discriminate between a motor task and rest both within and across subjects. We further investigate what drives dynamic states using the model on the entire data collated across subjects and task/rest. We find that the number of states extracted are driven by subject variability and preprocessing differences while the individual states are almost purely defined by either task or rest. This questions how we in general interpret dynamic FC and points to the need for more research on what drives dynamic FC.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure. Presented at the Machine Learning and Interpretation in Neuroimaging Workshop (MLINI-2015), 2015 (arXiv:1605.04435