2 research outputs found
Bayesian Inference of Individualized Treatment Effects using Multi-task Gaussian Processes
Predicated on the increasing abundance of electronic health records, we
investi- gate the problem of inferring individualized treatment effects using
observational data. Stemming from the potential outcomes model, we propose a
novel multi- task learning framework in which factual and counterfactual
outcomes are mod- eled as the outputs of a function in a vector-valued
reproducing kernel Hilbert space (vvRKHS). We develop a nonparametric Bayesian
method for learning the treatment effects using a multi-task Gaussian process
(GP) with a linear coregion- alization kernel as a prior over the vvRKHS. The
Bayesian approach allows us to compute individualized measures of confidence in
our estimates via pointwise credible intervals, which are crucial for realizing
the full potential of precision medicine. The impact of selection bias is
alleviated via a risk-based empirical Bayes method for adapting the multi-task
GP prior, which jointly minimizes the empirical error in factual outcomes and
the uncertainty in (unobserved) counter- factual outcomes. We conduct
experiments on observational datasets for an inter- ventional social program
applied to premature infants, and a left ventricular assist device applied to
cardiac patients wait-listed for a heart transplant. In both experi- ments, we
show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art
Treatment-Response Models for Counterfactual Reasoning with Continuous-time, Continuous-valued Interventions
Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference
in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating
the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over
time. Further, the outcome variable may not be measured at a regular frequency.
Our proposed solution represents the treatment response curves using linear
time-invariant dynamical systems---this provides a flexible means for modeling
response over time to highly variable dose curves. Moreover, for multivariate
data, the proposed method: uncovers shared structure in treatment response and
the baseline across multiple markers; and, flexibly models challenging
correlation structure both across and within signals over time. For this, we
build upon the framework of multiple-output Gaussian Processes. On simulated
and a challenging clinical dataset, we show significant gains in accuracy over
state-of-the-art models.Comment: In Proceedings of the Thirty-Third Conference on Uncertainty in
Artificial Intelligence (UAI-2017), Sydney, Australia, August 2017. The first
two authors contributed equally to this wor