Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia.

BACKGROUND: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change. OBJECTIVES: We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations. METHODS: Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates. RESULTS: In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population. CONCLUSIONS: Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by aging populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed

Effectiveness of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention in children under 10 years of age in Senegal: a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial

This study was done to determine the effectiveness of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention in Senegalese children up to 10 years of age using a stepped-wedge design. Outcomes included mortality, malaria cases treated as outpatients, severe malaria, and the prevalence of parasitaemia and anaemia, and adverse drug reactions. 54 health posts were randomized. 9 started implementation of SMC in 2008, 18 in 2009, and a further 18 in 2010, with 9 remaining as controls. In the first year of implementation SMC was delivered to children aged 3-59 months, the age range was then extended for the latter two years of the study to include children up to 10 years of age

Automated 5-year Mortality Prediction using Deep Learning and Radiomics Features from Chest Computed Tomography

We propose new methods for the prediction of 5-year mortality in elderly individuals using chest computed tomography (CT). The methods consist of a classifier that performs this prediction using a set of features extracted from the CT image and segmentation maps of multiple anatomic structures. We explore two approaches: 1) a unified framework based on deep learning, where features and classifier are automatically learned in a single optimisation process; and 2) a multi-stage framework based on the design and selection/extraction of hand-crafted radiomics features, followed by the classifier learning process. Experimental results, based on a dataset of 48 annotated chest CTs, show that the deep learning model produces a mean 5-year mortality prediction accuracy of 68.5%, while radiomics produces a mean accuracy that varies between 56% to 66% (depending on the feature selection/extraction method and classifier). The successful development of the proposed models has the potential to make a profound impact in preventive and personalised healthcare.Comment: 9 page

Processes of Care Associated With Risk of Mortality and Recurrent Stroke Among Patients With Transient Ischemic Attack and Nonsevere Ischemic Stroke

Importance: Early evaluation and management of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) and nonsevere ischemic stroke improves outcomes. Objective: To identify processes of care associated with reduced risk of death or recurrent stroke among patients with TIA or nonsevere ischemic stroke. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included all patients with TIA or nonsevere ischemic stroke at Department of Veterans Affairs emergency department or inpatient settings from October 2010 to September 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model associations of processes of care and without-fail care, defined as receiving all guideline-concordant processes of care for which patients are eligible, with risk of death and recurrent stroke. Data were analyzed from March 2018 to April 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk of all-cause mortality and recurrent ischemic stroke at 90 days and 1 year was calculated. Overall, 28 processes of care were examined. Without-fail care was assessed for 6 processes: brain imaging, carotid artery imaging, hypertension medication intensification, high- or moderate-potency statin therapy, antithrombotics, and anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation. Results: Among 8076 patients, the mean (SD) age was 67.8 (11.6) years, 7752 patients (96.0%) were men, 5929 (73.4%) were white, 474 (6.1%) had a recurrent ischemic stroke within 90 days, 793 (10.7%) had a recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year, 320 (4.0%) died within 90 days, and 814 (10.1%) died within 1 year. Overall, 9 processes were independently associated with lower odds of both 90-day and 1-year mortality after adjustment for multiple comparisons: carotid artery imaging (90-day adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.49; 95% CI, 0.38-0.63; 1-year aOR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.52-0.72), antihypertensive medication class (90-day aOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.45-0.74; 1-year aOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60-0.83), lipid measurement (90-day aOR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.51-0.90; 1-year aOR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.53-0.78), lipid management (90-day aOR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.33-0.65; 1-year aOR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.53-0.85), discharged receiving statin medication (90-day aOR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.36-0.73; 1-year aOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55-0.88), cholesterol-lowering medication intensification (90-day aOR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26-0.83; 1-year aOR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.41-0.77), antithrombotics by day 2 (90-day aOR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.40-0.79; 1-year aOR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.87) or at discharge (90-day aOR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.41-0.86; 1-year aOR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.88), and neurology consultation (90-day aOR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.87; 1-year aOR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63-0.87). Anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation was associated with lower odds of 1-year mortality only (aOR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.40-0.85). No processes were associated with reduced risk of recurrent stroke after adjustment for multiple comparisons. The rate of without-fail care was 15.3%; 1216 patients received all guideline-concordant processes of care for which they were eligible. Without-fail care was associated with a 31.2% lower odds of 1-year mortality (aOR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.87) but was not independently associated with stroke risk. Conclusions and Relevance: Patients who received 6 readily available processes of care had lower adjusted mortality 1 year after TIA or nonsevere ischemic stroke. Clinicians caring for patients with TIA and nonsevere ischemic stroke should seek to ensure that patients receive all guideline-concordant processes of care for which they are eligible

Stressful life-events exposure is associated with 17-year mortality, but it is health-related events that prove predictive

Objectives Despite the widely-held view that psychological stress is a major cause of poor health, few studies have examined the relationship between stressful life-events exposure and death. The present analyses examined the association between overall life-events stress load, health-related and health-unrelated stress, and subsequent all-cause mortality.\ud \ud Design This study employed a prospective longitudinal design incorporating time-varying covariates.\ud \ud Methods Participants were 968 Scottish men and women who were 56 years old. Stressful life-events experience for the preceding 2 years was assessed at baseline, 8–9 years and 12–13 years later. Mortality was tracked for the subsequent 17 years during which time 266 participants had died. Cox's regression models with time-varying covariates were applied. We adjusted for sex, occupational status, smoking, BMI, and systolic blood pressure.\ud \ud Results Overall life-events numbers and their impact scores at the time of exposure and the time of assessment were associated with 17-year mortality. Health-related event numbers and impact scores were strongly predictive of mortality. This was not the case for health-unrelated events.\ud \ud Conclusions The frequency of life-events and the stress load they imposed were associated with all-cause mortality. However, it was the experience and impact of health-related, not health-unrelated, events that proved predictive. This reinforces the need to disaggregate these two classes of exposures in studies of stress and health outcomes.\u

Annual league tables of mortality in neonatal intensive care units: longitudinal study. International Neonatal Network and the Scottish Neonatal Consultants and Nurses Collaborative Study Group.[see comment]

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether crude league tables of mortality and league tables of risk adjusted mortality accurately reflect the performance of hospitals. DESIGN: Longitudinal study of mortality occurring in hospital. SETTING: 9 neonatal intensive care units in the United Kingdom. SUBJECTS: 2671 very low birth weight or preterm infants admitted to neonatal intensive care units between 1988 and 1994. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude hospital mortality and hospital mortality adjusted using the clinical risk index for babies (CRIB) score. RESULTS: Hospitals had wide and overlapping confidence intervals when ranked by mortality in annual league tables; this made it impossible to discriminate between hospitals reliably. In most years there was no significant difference between hospitals, only random variation. The apparent performance of individual hospitals fluctuated substantially from year to year. CONCLUSIONS: Annual league tables are not reliable indicators of performance or best practice; they do not reflect consistent differences between hospitals. Any action prompted by the annual league tables would have been equally likely to have been beneficial, detrimental, or irrelevant. Mortality should be compared between groups of hospitals using specific criteria-such as differences in the volume of patients, staffing policy, training of staff, or aspects of clinical practice-after adjusting for risk. This will produce more reliable estimates with narrower confidence intervals, and more reliable and rapid conclusions

Simulation of Demographic Change in Palestinian Territories

Mortality, birth rates and retirement play a major role in demographic changes. In most cases, mortality rates decreased in the past century without noticeable decrease in fertility rates, this leads to a significant increase in population growth. In many poor countries like Palestinian territories the number of births has fallen and the life expectancy increased. In this article we concentrate on measuring, analyzing and extrapolating the age structure in Palestine a few decades ago into future. A Fortran program has been designed and used for the simulation and analysis of our statistical data. This study of demographic change in Palestine has shown that Palestinians will have in future problems as the strongest age cohorts are the above-60-year olds. We therefore recommend the increase of both the retirement age and women employment.Comment: For Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 18, issue 11; 9 pages including figures and progra

Serous cystic neoplasm of the pancreas: A multinational study of 2622 patients under the auspices of the International Association of Pancreatology and European Pancreatic Club (European Study Group on Cystic Tumors of the Pancreas)

OBJECTIVES: Serous cystic neoplasm (SCN) is a cystic neoplasm of the pancreas whose natural history is poorly known. The purpose of the study was to attempt to describe the natural history of SCN, including the specific mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective multinational study including SCN diagnosed between 1990 and 2014. RESULTS: 2622 patients were included. Seventy-four per cent were women, and median age at diagnosis was 58\u2005years (16-99). Patients presented with non-specific abdominal pain (27%), pancreaticobiliary symptoms (9%), diabetes mellitus (5%), other symptoms (4%) and/or were asymptomatic (61%). Fifty-two per cent of patients were operated on during the first year after diagnosis (median size: 40\u2005mm (2-200)), 9% had resection beyond 1\u2005year of follow-up (3\u2005years (1-20), size at diagnosis: 25\u2005mm (4-140)) and 39% had no surgery (3.6\u2005years (1-23), 25.5\u2005mm (1-200)). Surgical indications were (not exclusive) uncertain diagnosis (60%), symptoms (23%), size increase (12%), large size (6%) and adjacent organ compression (5%). In patients followed beyond 1\u2005year (n=1271), size increased in 37% (growth rate: 4\u2005mm/year), was stable in 57% and decreased in 6%. Three serous cystadenocarcinomas were recorded. Postoperative mortality was 0.6% (n=10), and SCN's related mortality was 0.1% (n=1). CONCLUSIONS: After a 3-year follow-up, clinical relevant symptoms occurred in a very small proportion of patients and size slowly increased in less than half. Surgical treatment should be proposed only for diagnosis remaining uncertain after complete workup, significant and related symptoms or exceptionally when exists concern with malignancy. This study supports an initial conservative management in the majority of patients with SCN

Outcomes and risk score for distal pancreatectomy with celiac axis resection (DP-CAR) : an international multicenter analysis

Background: Distal pancreatectomy with celiac axis resection (DP-CAR) is a treatment option for selected patients with pancreatic cancer involving the celiac axis. A recent multicenter European study reported a 90-day mortality rate of 16%, highlighting the importance of patient selection. The authors constructed a risk score to predict 90-day mortality and assessed oncologic outcomes. Methods: This multicenter retrospective cohort study investigated patients undergoing DP-CAR at 20 European centers from 12 countries (model design 2000-2016) and three very-high-volume international centers in the United States and Japan (model validation 2004-2017). The area under receiver operator curve (AUC) and calibration plots were used for validation of the 90-day mortality risk model. Secondary outcomes included resection margin status, adjuvant therapy, and survival. Results: For 191 DP-CAR patients, the 90-day mortality rate was 5.5% (95 confidence interval [CI], 2.2-11%) at 5 high-volume (1 DP-CAR/year) and 18% (95 CI, 9-30%) at 18 low-volume DP-CAR centers (P=0.015). A risk score with age, sex, body mass index (BMI), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, multivisceral resection, open versus minimally invasive surgery, and low- versus high-volume center performed well in both the design and validation cohorts (AUC, 0.79 vs 0.74; P=0.642). For 174 patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, the R0 resection rate was 60%, neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies were applied for respectively 69% and 67% of the patients, and the median overall survival period was 19months (95 CI, 15-25months). Conclusions: When performed for selected patients at high-volume centers, DP-CAR is associated with acceptable 90-day mortality and overall survival. The authors propose a 90-day mortality risk score to improve patient selection and outcomes, with DP-CAR volume as the dominant predictor