Price Discovery in Private Cash Forward Markets - The Case of Lumber

Cash forward contracting is a common, and often preferred, means of managing price risk for agribusinesses. Despite this, little is known about the performance of cash forward markets, in particular the role they play in price discovery. The lumber market provides a unique case for examining this issue. The Bloch Lumber Company maintains an active cash forward market for many lumber products, and publishes benchmark forward prices on their website and disseminates these prices to data vendors. Focusing on 2x4 random lengths lumber and 7/16 oriented strand board, this research examines the lead-lag relationships between the three-month forward prices published by Bloch Lumber and representative spot prices. Results suggest that at least for 2x4 random lengths lumber, the forward prices published by Bloch Lumber lead the spot price. However, spot prices do not lead the forward prices for 2x4 random lengths lumber, but do for oriented strand board. While these results suggest that the Bloch Lumber forward cash prices are contributing to price discovery, the dominant market for price discovery may be an existing spot or futures market.Marketing,

On the entropy of LEGO

We propose the further study of the rate of growth of the number of contiguous buildings which may be made from n LEGO blocks of the same size and color. Specializing to blocks of dimension 2x4 we give upper and lower bounds, and speculate on the true value.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures. Revised version: Minor corrections, page

2-extensions with many points

We give defining equations for function fields over finite fields with many rational places. They are obtained from composita of quadratic extensions of the rational function field

Growth rates of permutation classes: categorization up to the uncountability threshold

In the antecedent paper to this it was established that there is an algebraic number $\xi\approx 2.30522$ such that while there are uncountably many growth rates of permutation classes arbitrarily close to $\xi$, there are only countably many less than $\xi$. Here we provide a complete characterization of the growth rates less than $\xi$. In particular, this classification establishes that $\xi$ is the least accumulation point from above of growth rates and that all growth rates less than or equal to $\xi$ are achieved by finitely based classes. A significant part of this classification is achieved via a reconstruction result for sum indecomposable permutations. We conclude by refuting a suggestion of Klazar, showing that $\xi$ is an accumulation point from above of growth rates of finitely based permutation classes.Comment: To appear in Israel J. Mat

New physics in t-> b W decay at next-to-leading order in QCD

We consider contributions of non-standard tbW effective operators to the decay of an unpolarized top quark into a bottom quark and a W gauge boson at next-to-leading order in QCD. We find that the dipole operator O_{LR} contribution to the transverse-plus W helicity fraction F_+ is significantly enhanced compared to the leading order result at non-vanishing bottom quark mass. Nonetheless, presently the most sensitive observable to direct O_{LR} contributions is the longitudinal W helicity fraction F_L. In particular, the most recent CDF measurement of F_L already provides the most stringent upper bound on O_{LR} contributions, even when compared with indirect bounds from the rare decay B -> X_s gamma.Comment: 5 page