Tariff creation and tariff diversion in a customs union: The endogenous external tariff of the EEC 1968 - 1983

Data from the EEC from 1968-1983 do not support the view that regional trading arrangements necessarily lead to increased endogenous protectionism toward outside countries. This paper applies previous theoretical work by both authors on the theory of endogenous protection and endogenous free riding to the European Economic Community (the EEC). We use data from 51 three-digit manufacturing industries to explain endogenous changes in the common external tariff of the EEC over the period 1968-1983. We proxy pre-and post-customs union formation using data from two of the three largest countries in the EEC (France and Italy). In this sample, the common external tariff of the EEC fell from 15 percent to 7.5 percent from 1968-1983, largely due to GATT negotiations. US tariffs also fell in half over this period. Our industry analysis indicates that the common external tariff rose by 1.7 percentage points from 1968-1983 because of "tariff creation," which was (1) increased political pressure from protectionists most harmed by the rapid growth in intra-EEC imports and (2) decreased free riding caused by increased industry concentration due to firm mergers stimulated by plant and firm economies of scale. We found that the common external tariff fell by 1.1 percentage points from 1968-1983 because of "tariff diversion," caused by (1) increased free riding within protectionist industry lobbies because of their operation within the larger political arena of the EEC and (2) decreased political pressure from those protectionists whose industries had grown rapidly thanks to the movement towards optimal country size and other customs union efficiencies

Canadian Money Demand Functions Cointegration¨CRank Stability

This paper applies conventional tests (Johansen, 1995) and new tests (Chao and Phillips, 1999) for cointegration to long¨Crun money demand functions using historical Canadian data back to 1872. If cointegration is found, recently proposed tests by Quintos (1998a) for stability of the cointegration rank are carried out. The paper focuses on two spans of data: one span starting in 1872, the other in 1957 or 1968. Annual data are used for the former span, and annual and quarterly data for the latter. The preferred money demand specification involves M1.Vector error-correction; unknown change points; long spans of monetary data

Analysis of lunar laser ranging data for Earth dynamics applications

The effects of elasticity and of tidal friction within the Moon were incorporated into the numerical model of the Moon's rotation which was used in an effort to determine the axial rotation of the Earth, as measured by Universal Time. Some 2,651 normal points representing ranges measured to Lunokhod 2, and to the Apollo 11, 14, and 15 retroflectors were analyzed. Smoothed estimates derived from the lunar rangefinding were compared with smoothed values published by the International Bureau of Time, in the 1968 and 1969 systems. The derived values at the observation sight were connected to corresponding values at the Conventional International Origin, using the BIH data for polar motion. Differences are discussed

The correlated optical and radio variability of BL Lacertae. WEBT data analysis 1994-2005

Since 1997, BL Lacertae has undergone a phase of high optical activity, with the occurrence of several prominent outbursts. Starting from 1999, the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (WEBT) consortium has organized various multifrequency campaigns on this blazar, collecting tens of thousands of data points. One of the main issues in the study of this huge dataset has been the search for correlations between the optical and radio flux variations, and for possible periodicities in the light curves. The analysis of the data assembled during the first four campaigns (comprising also archival data to cover the period 1968-2003) revealed a fair optical-radio correlation in 1994-2003, with a delay of the hard radio events of ~100 days. Moreover, various statistical methods suggested the existence of a radio periodicity of ~8 years. In 2004 the WEBT started a new campaign to extend the dataset to the most recent observing seasons, in order to possibly confirm and better understand the previous results. In this campaign we have collected and assembled about 11000 new optical observations from twenty telescopes, plus near-IR and radio data at various frequencies. Here, we perform a correlation analysis on the long-term R-band and radio light curves. In general, we confirm the ~100-day delay of the hard radio events with respect to the optical ones, even if longer (~200-300 days) time lags are also found in particular periods. The radio quasi-periodicity is confirmed too, but the "period" seems to progressively lengthen from 7.4 to 9.3 years in the last three cycles. The optical and radio behaviour in the last forty years suggests a scenario where geometric effects play a major role. In particular, the alternation of enhanced and suppressed optical activity (accompanied by hard and soft radio events, respectively) canComment: 6 pages, 4 figure

A climatically-derived global soil moisture data set for use in the GLAS atmospheric circulation model seasonal cycle experiment

Algorithms for point interpolation and contouring on the surface of the sphere and in Cartesian two-space are developed from Shepard's (1968) well-known, local search method. These mapping procedures then are used to investigate the errors which appear on small-scale climate maps as a result of the all-too-common practice of of interpolating, from irregularly spaced data points to the nodes of a regular lattice, and contouring Cartesian two-space. Using mean annual air temperatures field over the western half of the northern hemisphere is estimated both on the sphere, assumed to be correct, and in Cartesian two-space. When the spherically- and Cartesian-approximted air temperature fields are mapped and compared, the magnitudes (as large as 5 C to 10 C) and distribution of the errors associated with the latter approach become apparent

Religious experience among Catholic and Protestant sixth-form students in Northern Ireland : looking for signs of the presence of God

John Greer conducted major surveys of sixth-form religion in Protestant schools in Northern Ireland in 1968, 1978, and 1988. John Greer’s colleagues continued that research tradition in Northern Ireland in 1998 and in 2010, and extended the survey to include sixth-form students in Catholic schools. Greer’s survey routinely included a question on religious experience, drawing on the approach of Alister Hardy and the Religious Experience Research Unit. The 2010 survey provided the data from around 1,500 sixth-form students analysed in the present paper. These new data offer two main points of contrast, between students in Catholic and in Protestant schools, and between students in 1998 and 2010. The analysis preserves Greer’s historic descriptive categories of religious experience styled: help and guidance, exams, God’s presence, answered prayer, death, sickness, conversion, miscellaneous, and difficulty in describing

Evidence for the influence of the mere-exposure effect on voting in the Eurovision Song Contest

The mere exposure, or familiarity, effect is the tendency for people to feel more positive about stimuli to which they have previously been exposed. The Eurovision Song Contest is a two-stage event, in which some contestants in the final will be more familiar to viewers than others. Thus, viewers’ voting is likely to be influenced by this effect. Previous work attempting to demonstrate this effect in this context has been unable to control for contestant quality. The current study, which used a novel procedure to analyse the way in which contestant countries distributed their points (a function of how viewers voted in those countries) between 2008 and 2011, showed that contestants did better if they previously appeared in a semifinal that was seen by voters. This is evidence that the mere exposure effect, alongside previously studied factors such as cultural and geographical closeness, influences the way viewers vote in the Eurovision

The atmospheres of Mars and Venus

Of all the planets which may exist in the Universe, only nine have been studied by man. As a result, one cannot classify planets with the same confidence that one has in classifying stars; there is no theory of planetary evolution comparable in development to the theory of stellar evolution. Nevertheless, many of the goals of planetary science and stellar astronomy are the same: to classify objects according to their most fundamental properties in order to understand their present physical state and their evolution. From this point of view, the terrestrial planets comprise a group which can usefully be considered together. By comparing the similarities and differences between them, we may hope to gain insight into the evolution of the entire group

Observations of Parametric Fluorescence and Oscillation in the Infrared

Measurements of infrared optical parametric fluorescence are reported for the first time. Using a pump wavelength of 1.064 µ in LiNbO_3 , observations of the fluorescence power, bandwidth, and angular dependence at 1.63 µ are in good agreement with a plane-wave theory. The operating characteristics of two pulsed, internal, doubly resonant parametric oscillators are also reported and compared with predictions of the fluorescence measurements. With measured thresholds on the order of 400–700 W, the two oscillators provided nearly continuous tuning from 1.51 µ to 3.55 µ with average powers of 6 mW and peak powers of 600 W. These powers represent available pump conversion efficiencies of 10% and 50%, respectively. Oscillating bandwidths were only 10% of the fluorescence bandwidth and ranged from 1.7 cm^(-1) to 45 cm^(-1), depending on the output wavelength. Longitudinal mode structure and multiple pulsing of the oscillators were observed