Architecting Human Operator Trust in Automation to Improve System Effectiveness in Multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)

Current Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) designs require multiple operators for each vehicle, partly due to imperfect automation matched with the complex operational environment. This study examines the effectiveness of future UAS automation by explicitly addressing the human/machine trust relationship during system architecting. A pedigreed engineering model of trust between human and machine was developed and applied to a laboratory-developed micro-UAS for Special Operations. This unprecedented investigation answered three primary questions. Can previous research be used to create a useful trust model for systems engineering? How can trust be considered explicitly within the DoD Architecture Framework? Can the utility of architecting trust be demonstrated on a given UAS architecture? By addressing operator trust explicitly during architecture development, system designers can incorporate more effective automation. The results provide the Systems Engineering community a new modeling technique for early human systems integration

A Study on Cognitive Biases in Gambling: Hot Hand and Gamblers' Fallacy

People who appear to believe in the hot hand expect winning streaks to continue whereas those suffering from the gamblers’ fallacy unreasonably expect losing streaks to reverse. 565,915 sports bets made by 776 online gamblers in 2010 were used for analysis. People who won were more likely to win again whereas those who lost were more likely to lose again. However, selection of safer odds after winning and riskier ones after losing indicates that online sports gamblers expected their luck to reverse: they suffered from the gamblers’ fallacy. By following in the gamblers’ fallacy, they created their own hot hands. Some gamblers consistently outperformed their peers. They also consistently made higher profits or lower losses. They show real expertise. The key of real expertise is the ability to control loss