9 research outputs found

    Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: revelations from speeches

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    Este trabajo estudia el contenido de los discursos de los funcionarios de la Fed, poniendo el foco en la estabilidad financiera, desde 1997 hasta 2018. En ├ęl se desarrollan indicadores que miden tanto la intensidad como el tono de los discursos de los miembros de la Junta de Gobernadores y los distintos presidentes de la Fed regionales al hablar de este tema. Cuando estos indicadores se introducen en una regla de Taylor forward-looking, encontramos que una mayor intensidad del tema o un tono negativo del discurso se asocian con una pol├ştica monetaria m├ís acomodaticia que la que se derivar├şa del estado de la econom├şa. Nuestros resultados de la regla de Taylor se basan principalmente en la informaci├│n de los discursos de los presidentes de la Fed. Analizamos varios canales, que refrendan este resultado.This paper studies the informational content of speeches of Fed officials, focusing on financial stability, from 1997 to 2018. We construct indicators that measure the intensity and tone of this topic for both Governors and Fed presidents. When added to a standard forward-looking Taylor rule, a higher topic intensity or negative tone is associated with more monetary policy accommodation than implied by the state of the economy. Our results are mainly driven by the information in speeches of Fed presidents. We discuss several channels to rationalize this finding

    Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers

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    Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are perceived as swingers, switching between types, or remained an unknown quantity to markets. What makes a member a hawk or a dove? What moulds those who change their tune? We highlight ideology by education and early life economic experiences of members of the FOMC from 1960s to 2015. This research is based on an original dataset

    Fed┬┤s financial stability concerns and monetary policy

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    Summary of Banco de Espa├▒a Working Paper no. 211

    Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations

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    Parallel Sessions E: Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecastin