This study investigates the complex impacts of climate change on Saudi Arabia’s ecosystems, focusing on two major challenges: biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the research evaluates the effectiveness of national adaptation strategies that integrate biodiversity conservation, water resource management, and climate policy. The analysis examines sustainable agricultural practices, biodiversity protection programs, and advanced water conservation technologies. The results identified water scarcity as the most critical issue, with renewable water resources expected to decline by 20–30 % by mid-century. Biodiversity loss, particularly among endemic species such as the Arabian oryx, also emerged as a severe threat. Results point out the need to expand desalination capacity, promote agroecological farming, and strengthen ecosystem restoration initiatives, alongside public awareness and environmental education to foster long-term resilience. Aligning adaptation strategies with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 framework is essential to support economic diversification, safeguard natural resources, and enhance ecological sustainability.This study investigates the complex impacts of climate change on Saudi Arabia’s ecosystems, focusing on two major challenges: biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the research evaluates the effectiveness of national adaptation strategies that integrate biodiversity conservation, water resource management, and climate policy. The analysis examines sustainable agricultural practices, biodiversity protection programs, and advanced water conservation technologies. The results identified water scarcity as the most critical issue, with renewable water resources expected to decline by 20–30 % by mid-century. Biodiversity loss, particularly among endemic species such as the Arabian oryx, also emerged as a severe threat. Results point out the need to expand desalination capacity, promote agroecological farming, and strengthen ecosystem restoration initiatives, alongside public awareness and environmental education to foster long-term resilience. Aligning adaptation strategies with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 framework is essential to support economic diversification, safeguard natural resources, and enhance ecological sustainability
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