Prediction of Future Mushroom Fruiting Success and Dispersion Based on Models of Changing Surface Air Temperature in Oaxaca, Mexico

Abstract

Mushrooms serve various purposes, including medicinal, culinary, and cultural significance for indigenous groups, as well as recreational and ecosystem services. Oaxaca, Mexico, is a hotspot for mushroom biodiversity including the following varieties: Amanita muscaria, Schizophyllum commune and Coprinellus disseminates. The purpose of this study is to determine if a changing Mean Surface Air Temperature will have an influence on these mushrooms. We obtained, analyzed, and compared historical and future climate data from the World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal to identify if any of the mushroom species would be impacted. The study revealed a general trend of warming Mean Surface Air Temperature in both the historical data and future projections (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) from 2040 – 2100 for the mountainous and coastal region of Oaxaca, Mexico. A similar warming trend was forecast for the mushroom season from June to November across all projections from 2040 to 2059. Amanita muscaria has a low probability of fruiting during the mushroom season in both the mountain and coastal regions, compared to its counterparts, which have a chance to fruit throughout the season based on projections from 2040 – 2059. Between 2060 – 2100, Amanita muscaria fruiting probability continues to decrease significantly, requiring expansion of its growing region to cooler localities. The other two species appear to not be affected by the projections