Beyond conventional routes: an approach to understanding leptospirosis transmission dynamics through mathematical modeling with real data from Thailand

Abstract

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease caused by Leptospira bacteria, that occurs mainly in tropical regions such as Thailand. This study presents a mathematical model that captures the dynamics of Leptospira transmission. The model incorporates direct and environmental transmission pathways and notably includes an exposed human compartment, an often-neglected element in existing leptospirosis models. We combined several control interventions, including environmental management, reservoir control, and human treatment to explore strategies for mitigating disease spread. The equilibrium points of the system are identified, and their stability properties are analyzed. Using real data from Thailand, we estimate key parameters and perform a global sensitivity analysis to identify the dominant factors driving leptospirosis transmission. Finally, we evaluate optimal control theory and conduct a comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of the proposed interventions. Our findings suggest that environmental management is the most effective and potentially cost-effective strategy to reduce leptospirosis transmission