Critical material and regional inequality: Material demand under diverging decarbonization pathways in China’s power sector

Abstract

International audienceChina's power sector decarbonization is crucial for global climate goals. However, regional disparities in decarbonization pathways and material demands arise due to differences in resource endowment, economic development, and policy support. This study develops an integrated assessment model to evaluate critical material demand for decarbonizing China's power sector under four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy (RE), Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and Advanced Nuclear (AN). The results show significant provincial variations, with eastern provinces favoring wind and solar, while western and coal-dependent regions rely on hydropower or CCS. Nationally, material demand peaks in the CCS scenario by 2060, especially for structural materials like copper (2250 Mt) and nickel (445 Mt). Functional materials such as silicon and indium see significant demand increases under PV-driven transitions, with silicon reaching 9300 kt and indium 14.2 Mt by 2060 in the RE scenario. These findings highlight the need for region-specific policies, long-term material supply planning, and addressing material demand imbalances for a sustainable energy transition