Deterrence, prior experience, and drunk-driving intentions: A survey experiment among Turkish drivers

Abstract

This study evaluates the core claims of deterrence theory in the context of drunk driving among Turkish drivers. Using a scenario-based, 3 × 3 factorial survey, 1153 respondents read one randomly assigned vignette that varied the likelihood of police detection (low/medium/high) and the severity of legal sanctions (fine only/fine + license suspension/fine + license suspension + imprisonment). Participants then reported (a) their perceived certainty of apprehension, (b) the perceived severity of punishment, and (c) their likelihood of driving after drinking. Additional items captured demographics, lifetime drunk-driving frequency and punishment history. Findings replicate several patterns in a non-Western setting. Higher perceived certainty and, to a lesser extent, higher perceived severity were associated with lower offending intentions. Environmental cues embedded in the vignettes systematically shifted certainty and severity perceptions. Prior drunk-driving experience lowered perceived certainty, but prior punishment did not raise it, offering only partial support for specific deterrence. Certainty effects emerged only above a 70 % subjective likelihood of apprehension, and severity mattered chiefly when certainty was moderate. The limited impact of formal punishment, together with evidence of compliance despite low perceived risk, suggests an important role for informal social controls in Turkey's drunk-driving deterrence landscape. © 2025 Elsevier Lt