The John Muir Award's role in the complex formation of lasting nature connectedness: a Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping study with Scottish outdoor learning practitioners

Abstract

Evaluations of outdoor learning interventions consistently report improvements in participants’ nature connectedness, yet evidence for sustained impact is scarce. This gap persists because nature connectedness comes from numerous factors interacting over time, frustrating understanding of how to foster strong human-nature bonds for lifelong health and environmental behaviours. To understand how fixed-duration interventions might contribute to lasting change within complex systems, this study pursued three progressive objectives: mapping the complex system shaping lasting nature connectedness in Scottish children and young people; identifying the most influential concepts where strategic intervention might achieve maximum impact; and exploring how the John Muir Award, may contribute to connectedness under different system conditions. I engaged Scottish outdoor learning practitioners to collaboratively map factors shaping nature connectedness using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). Through workshops and interviews, practitioners identified key system concepts and assigned numerical weights representing relationship strengths. Degree centrality analysis identified which concepts practitioners view as most influential. Child-led outdoor play emerged as the most critical direct factor, though heavily dependent on parental support and community attitudes. The model showed how key influences change with age: parental guidance is key in childhood while peer influence and community norms grow dominant in adolescence. Simulations explored conditions that support or impede the Award's sustained impact. Practitioners understand the Award's primary impact to be indirect, building leader confidence and motivation to facilitate ongoing outdoor learning. While the Award showed positive impacts across all simulations, improvements were modest and constrained by disabling community norms. This study concludes that outdoor learning interventions may achieve long-term impact by reinforcing the wider system that sustain engagement. As the first application of FCM to the fields of outdoor learning and nature connectedness, this work provides researchers with a pioneering demonstration for modelling complex nature-human dynamics, and offers practitioners a 'thinking tool' to design interventions for lasting impact