Pendulum routes in the Northeast Passage: design and economic analysis

Abstract

Global warming has made the regular operation of Arctic routes possible. This study selects hub ports based on infrastructure conditions and sea ice status, and then designs two pendulum route solutions for the Northeast Passage according to the distance between hub ports and ice-covered areas. We employ an evaluation framework combining annual profit metrics with discounted net present value (NPV) analysis, conducting probabilistic economic assessments through Monte Carlo simulations (20,000 iterations). Key findings indicate that (1) both solutions demonstrate >90% probability of economic viability and (2) Solution I′, with hub ports closer to ice-covered areas than those in Solution II, yields 5.02% higher mean annual profit and 4.69% greater NPV. The results indicate that pendulum routes in the Northeast Passage can achieve economic benefits by enabling year-round regular operations. Moreover, shorter shipping distances between hub ports and ice-covered areas enhance economic viability