Climate course correction: Preventing greenhouse gas emission (GHG) lock-in from development finance driven industrialization of animal agriculture in low-income countries

Abstract

This report delivers the following key messages:Animal agriculture — now predominantly industrialized — is a major driver of climate change. Without significant reductions in livestock-related emissions — especially methane — Paris Agreement targets cannot be met, even if fossil fuel emissions are eliminated.Investments in industrial animal agriculture entrench high-emission infrastructure, behaviors, and institutions that are difficult to shift away from. This resulting 'GHG lock-in' constrains the transition to lower-emission alternatives, jeopardizing global climate goals.Despite commitments to align with the Paris Agreement, multilateral development banks (MDBs) are funding industrial livestock projects in low-income countries (LICs) — concentrated mostly in sub-Saharan Africa — locking them into high-emissions production and consumption trajectories.Between 2018 and 2024, MDBs — including the World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB), and International Finance Corporation (IFC) — funded 55 livestock projects in LICs, 22 out of which involved industrialization. Of these 22 projects, 10 were 'exclusive livestock sector' projects.MDBs have poured more than US$1 billion into projects that trigger industrialization induced GHG lock-in in LICs. Of this, US$673 million has been directed to 'exclusive livestock-sector' projects.MDB funding of the industrialization of animal agriculture in LICs (US$1 billion) now nearly matches the amount allocated to strengthening of traditional pastoral systems, which have long been the predominant form of livestock production in the sub-Saharan Africa region (US$1.8 billion).MDBs are triggering industrialization-induced GHG lock-in in LICs primarily by financing vertical integration of value chains, construction of long-lived infrastructure and intensification of production.GHG lock-in in the livestock sector of LICs is not inevitable — but course correction must happen now. MDBs must halt the financing of industrial animal agriculture and instead channel investments toward climate-smart alternatives