Climatic suitability variations for climbing bean cultivation under climate change scenarios in Cundinamarca, Colombia

Abstract

Climate change is expected to modify the current suitable areas for bean cultivation, driven by regional shifts in temperature and precipitation. Despite the economic and food security importance of beans in Colombia, there is a lack of knowledge about how ongoing and future climate change may reshape their agroclimatic suitability across the country. This study aimed to assess the potential future shifts in suitable areas for climbing bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) cultivation in the department of Cundinamarca under projected climate change scenarios. Suitable areas were categorized into A1 (best conditions), A2 (moderate constraints), A3 (strong restrictions), and N1 (not suitable), based on a decision tree with defined altitude, temperature, and precipitation intervals. The period 1981-2010 was utilized as the present climate, and the future periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 were considered under the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Information from the Global Climate Model CCSM4 from the National Center for Atmospheric Research was used to identify new potential areas and changes in optimal zones under future scenarios. The forecast for Cundinamarca indicates that under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the total suitable area decreases slightly by 3.8%, while the A1 zone expands, especially in cooler highland regions. In a high-emission future (the RCP 8.5 scenario), the total suitable area declines more sharply (by 14.8% between 2071 and 2100), while the unsuitable area increases by 6.5%. The expansion of A3 zones by up to 13.3% in the early and mid-21st century reflects the downgrading of currently optimal or moderate areas to low suitability due to rising temperatures, particularly in the Llanos foothills and the Magdalena slopes subregions