Assessment of Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in Panjshir , Afghanistan Using RS and GIS

Abstract

This study provides the first systematic assessment of glacial lake hazards in Panjshir Province, Afghanistan, where rapid glacier retreat has facilitated the formation and expansion of numerous glacial lakes and intensified downstream risk. Using Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery, a 5-m DEM, and GIS-based morphometric extraction, 135 glacial lakes were identified and evaluated through a composite Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Index (GLOFRI). Six key parameters—lake area, outlet slope, glacier proximity, dam type, cascade configuration, and elevation—were used to calculate normalized hazard scores. GLOFRI values ranged from 0.0162 to 0.575 and were classified by the Equal Interval method into three hazard levels. Results show that four lakes (2.96%) fall within the high-risk category, primarily characterized by relatively large surface areas, unstable moraine dams, steep outlet slopes, and direct proximity to active glaciers. Fifty-nine lakes (43.70%) were classified as medium-risk and seventy-two (53.33%) as low-risk. Spatial analysis confirms that high-risk lakes are clustered immediately downstream of glacier fronts and connected to steep, confined valleys, representing the most immediate threat to communities, infrastructure, and irrigated land in Panjshir. The resulting prioritized inventory of potentially dangerous glacial lakes provides an essential baseline for monitoring, early-warning development, and GLOF-focused disaster risk reduction, and it offers a transferable framework for glacial lake hazard assessment in other data-scarce mountain regions