The Potential Future Impacts of Offshore Wind Energy Development and the Applicability of Size Limits for the Atlantic Surfclam, Spisula solidissima, Fishery in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Continental Shelf

Abstract

The Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima, fishery is encountering combined pressures from climate change and offshore wind energy expansion along the North American continental shelf. Utilizing the Spatially Explicit Fishery Economics Simulator (SEFES), this study evaluates the potential future impacts of offshore wind energy development and the influence of warming temperatures on the applicability of size limits for the surfclam fleet. Simulations reveal declines in landings, effort, and fishing mortality when restrictions apply within wind farm areas. In addition to spatial constraints, long-term warming trends continue to reshape the surfclam population structure, particularly by reducing the maximum attainable size in the southern portion of its range, a pattern consistent with the temperature-size rule. SEFES simulations presented in this study incorporate size structured growth dynamics and suggest that although regulatory size limits are designed to protect reproductive capacity, the selective removal of large clams has a disproportionately high impact on lifetime fecundity. Results indicate minimal influence of the current size limit regulation on fishery performance and population dynamics, questioning the limit’s continued relevance under changing climate conditions. These findings highlight the crucial need for adaptive management approaches that integrate renewable energy spatial planning with ecological forecasts of species distribution and population structure in a changing environment