Mango under climate change scenarios: Evaluating temperaturebased suitability across elevation gradients of Nepal

Abstract

Mango (Mangifera indica L.) has been grown predominantly in southern plains of Nepal. Climate change is expected to affect vegetation including its impact on mango phenology. To investigate how future climate affect mango suitability in Nepal, thresholds of bioclimatic variables such as Bio5 and Bio6 were set based on available literatures and related climate projections of 30 years’ time interval, were sourced from CHELSA platform. This constitutes the near current (1981-2010) as baseline for this study, and near future (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end century (2071-2100) timeframes for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and climate forcing scenarios (SSP1- 2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Utilizing geospatial layers of the bioclimatic variables, currently available land cover map and digital elevation model (DEM), the change in suitable area and elevation for mango were mapped for Nepal. The results suggest that elevated temperature across different climate projection scenarios will increase additional mango suitable area up to 35.9 percent during end century from near current and extend suitability to higher elevation, ranging from additional 89.02 m in SSP1-2.6 of near future to 502.67 m in SSP5-8.5 of end century. The increment in suitability will further differ across elevation ranges and provinces, Karnali witnessing the highest rate of change in suitable area in all scenarios. The upward extension of suitability in the changed climatic conditions for Nepal’s has implications in future fruit zoning and climate adaptation planning. This also demands further research on integration of this tropical fruit in the existing farming systems where mango cultivation was not in practice.16 page