Replication Report of "Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility" by Danz, Vesterlund, and Wilson (2022)

Abstract

This study replicates and extends the analysis of belief elicitation methods conducted by Danz et al. (2022). The original paper scrutinizes the binarized scoring rule (BSR) method and its effectiveness in incentivizing truthful reporting. Using data from the original controlled laboratory experiments conducted at the Pittsburgh Experimental Economics Laboratory (PEEL), this replication investigates the impact of varying levels of information about incentives on belief reporting accuracy. The findings of the replication confirm systematic biases in belief reporting, particularly a center-bias effect, challenging the behavioral incentive compatibility of the BSR method. Robustness checks further confirm the generalizability of these results across different settings and belief elicitation tasks. These findings underscore the need for improved methodologies that ensure both theoretical and behavioral incentive compatibility in belief elicitation