THE UTILITY OF PROXY WARFARE

Abstract

Proxy warfare continues to be actively employed by both Western powers and states in the Global South. Contemporary proxy wars retain many characteristics that concerned Great Powers during the Cold War, particularly the issue of a proxy’s utility or effectiveness. One way to evaluate this utility is through the nature of the relationship between the proxy and its patron. This thesis seeks to determine whether the character of this relationship can predict the success of a patron-proxy pair in war.Through statistical analysis, this study aims to assess whether the ideological or strategic basis of a patron-proxy relationship influences conflict outcomes. While the analysis shows no statistically significant correlation, the findings still contribute meaningfully to the broader discourse on proxy warfare. In particular, they provide a foundation for comparing American and Iranian strategies for proxy engagement.The results should encourage American policymakers to reassess the criteria used when choosing proxies. In a world where direct intervention is often politically unviable, a nuanced understanding of what makes proxy relationships effective, or ineffective is essential for advancing U.S. strategic goals in complex geopolitical environments.Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.Lieutenant, United States Nav