Comparative Analysis of the C5.0 Algorithm and Other Machine Learning Models for Early Detection of Multi-Class Heart Disease

Abstract

Cardiovascular diseases represent the leading cause of mortality worldwide, making accurate and early detection a critical factor for effective medical intervention and improved patient prognosis. While machine learning (ML) offers promising tools for predictive diagnostics, many existing studies rely on single-algorithm approaches or less-than-robust validation methods, thereby limiting the generalizability and real-world applicability of their findings.This study aims to conduct a rigorous, head-to-head comparative evaluation of multiple machine learning algorithms for the multi-class classification of heart disease, with the goal of identifying the most effective and reliable model for this complex clinical task.We utilized a private dataset comprising 300 patient medical records, each described by 11 clinically relevant features. To ensure a robust and unbiased evaluation, a stratified 5-fold cross-validation methodology was employed. Five widely-used classification algorithms were evaluated: Naïve Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), a C5.0-analog Decision Tree (DT), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Model performance was assessed using standard metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score.The comparative analysis revealed that the Naïve Bayes algorithm delivered superior performance, achieving the highest mean accuracy of 43.33% (±4.22%). It also led in other key metrics with a mean precision of 43.40%, recall of 43.64%, and an F1-score of 41.26%. Other algorithms, such as Logistic Regression (40.67% accuracy) and Random Forest (39.33% accuracy), demonstrated competitive performance but were ultimately surpassed by the Naïve Bayes model in this specific multi-class classification context.This research underscores the critical importance of employing robust validation techniques and comprehensive comparative analyses to identify optimal models for clinical applications. The Naïve Bayes algorithm emerges as a strong candidate for developing a reliable clinical decision support system for the early differentiation of various heart conditions, providing a foundation for future data-driven diagnostic tools