Evaluating the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in non-endemic regions: A dynamic modeling approach

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases are spreading into temperate zones, raising concerns about local outbreaks driven by imported cases. Using stochastic methods, we developed a vector-host model to estimate the risk of import-driven autochthonous outbreaks in non-endemic regions. The model explores key factors such as imported cases and vector abundance. Our analysis shows that mosquito population abundance significantly affects the probability and timing of outbreaks. Even with moderate mosquito populations, isolated or clustered outbreaks can be triggered, highlighting the importance of monitoring vector abundance for effective public health planning and interventions.This work is supported by the ARBOSKADI project for monitoring vector-borne diseases in the Basque Country, Euskadi. We wish to extend our acknowledgments to Jesús Ángel Ocio Armentia, Oscar Goñi Laguardia and Ana Ramírez de La Peciña Pérez, Dirección de Salud Pública for their fruitful discussions, and to Madalen Oribe Amores, Unidad de Vigilancia Epidemiológica de Bizkaia, for her cooperation in providing the requested epidemiological data that was essential for carrying out this research. M.A. and A.C acknowledges the financial support by the Ministerio de Ciência e Innovacion (MICINN) of the Spanish Government through the Ramon Cajal grant RYC2021-031380-I, RYC2021-033084-I, respectively. This research is also supported by the Basque Government through the “Mathematical Modeling Applied to Health” (BMTF) Project, BERC 2022–2025 program and by the Spanish Ministry of Sciences, Innovation and Universities : BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation CEX2021-001142-S/MICIN / AEI/10.13039/501100011033