Comparison of meteorological indices for drought assessment and monitoring: A case study from the Tafna watershed, Northwestern Algeria

Abstract

Drought is a complex phenomenon that includes meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological aspects. It is characterized by an extended period of insufficient rainfall that adversely impacts civilization‘s economic, social, and environmental aspects. This study compares four meteorological indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), China-Z index (CZI), Modified China Z Index (MCZI), and Z-Score Index (ZSI), to identify the most suitable drought indices (DIs) for assessing drought in the Tafna watershed. Monthly rainfall data from 14 stations (1970-2019) were used to calculate drought events on 1-, 3-, and 12-month time scales. On the 1- and 3-month time scales, the frequency of total drought for SPI-1 and CZI-1 is higher than for MCZI-1 and ZSI-1. At the 12-month time scale, all DIs showed the same frequency of total drought for most stations. The highest Pearson correlation coefficient is observed between SPI-1 and CZI-1 on a 1-month scale, with values exceeding 0.939 across all stations. Additionally, 57 and 71% of stations exhibit the highest correlation between SPI and CZI, with coefficients exceeding 0.963 and 0.999 at 3- and 12-month scales, respectively. Most stations do not show any trend (increase or decrease) using the Mann-Kendall trend test in all index values at 1- and 3-month scales. On a 12-month scale, most stations showed an increase in the values of all DIs. The results reported in this study provide valuable insights that can enhance the management of water resources and improve preparedness for drought events in the Tafna watershed, particularly in the context of climate change